Information operations · Information Warfare · Iran

Iran Escalation (38)

Anonymous expert compilation, analysis, and reporting.

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Despite the immense barrage of media coverage, no significant developments. UK SECSTATE Hunt offers to release tanker if Iran agrees not to deliver the POL to Syria, no response reported as yet, Hunt pleads with Tehran to be sane. Speculation on how long it might take Tehran to build a nuke.

House Passes Defense Bill Limiting Use of Force Against Iran – WSJ

The House of Representatives passed a defense-policy bill that would prohibit the use of federal funds for military action against Iran without congressional consent as well as expand paid leave for U.S. workers.

Will Iran ‘break out’ for a nuclear weapon, and what can Trump do? | TheHill

President Trump has been signaling that he wants to negotiate and has softened what he seeks; the Iranians appear unimpressed.

Opinion: Iran′s calculated escalation in the Persian Gulf | Opinion | DW | 14.07.2019

Iranian speedboats recently went after a British oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite this provocation, the Iranian regime is not out for war, says Rainer Hermann of German daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

Iran ‘ready for talks’ with US if sanctions are lifted | News | Al Jazeera

Iranian leader Rouhani says Tehran open for dialogue if sanctions are lifted and US returns to nuclear deal.

Iran ready to talk if U.S. lifts sanctions, Pompeo skeptical – Reuters

Iran is ready to hold talks with the United States if Washington lifts sanctions and returns to the 2015 nuclear deal it quit last year, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said in a televised speech on Sunday.

Zarif to Hunt: ‘Iran will keep exporting oil under any circumstances’ – Tehran Times

TEHRAN – In a telephone conversation with his British counterpart Jeremy Hunt on Saturday, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif insisted that the oil sanctions against Iran by the U.S. are illegal and that “the Islamic Republic of Iran will keep exporting oil under any circumstances.”

Europe scrambles to save Iran deal, warning it’s ‘very close’ to unraveling – The Washington Post

Foreign ministers met in Brussels on Monday to try to salvage the nuclear agreement.

Iran nuclear deal: ‘Small window’ to save deal, says Jeremy Hunt – BBC News

Britain, Germany and France are emphasising their support for the deal, amid tensions in the Gulf.

Britain’s Hunt says ‘small window’ to save Iran nuclear deal – Reuters

British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said on Monday that there was still time to save the Iran nuclear deal and that despite the United States being Britain’s closest ally it disagreed on how to handle the Iran crisis.

Britain sees small window to salvage nuclear deal, Iran urges Europe to act – Reuters

Britain said on Monday there was a “small window” of time to save the Iran nuclear deal, as Tehran signaled it would ramp up its nuclear program — seen by the West as a cover for making atomic bombs — if Europe failed to do more to salvage the pact.

UK ties Iranian tanker’s release to promise on Syria | TheHill

The United Kingdom on Saturday tied the release of an Iranian oil tanker to a guarantee it would not go to Syria.

Iran ship attack is coming: ‘Matter of when, not if’ Colonel says as Navy races to Gulf | World | News |

BRITAIN’S most modern warship was racing towards the Perian Gulf last night amid warnings Iran will launch a guerrilla warfare-style attack on commercial shipping.

Strait of Hormuz: The Most Dangerous Place on Earth | The American Conservative

U.S. sanctions have created a tinderbox as shown by recent UK-Iranian tanker clashes. All this needs is a spark.

Tehran is preparing for a showdown with the US – The National

Iran’s escalation has backfired, even with trusted allies, and it is edging closer to red lines

Britain’s Hunt: Iran one year away from nuclear bomb | Arab News

BRUSSELS: British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said on Monday that there was still time to save the Iran nuclear deal and that despite the United States being Britain’s closest ally it disagreed on how to handle the Iran crisis. “Iran is still a good year away from developing a nuclear bomb. There is still some closing, but small window to keep the deal alive,” Hunt told

Note to Trump: Iran Would Need 1 Year to Build a Nuclear Weapon | The National Interest

Iran is taking steps to shorten the time it would take to produce a nuclear warhead.

Call Iran’s Bluff With an Offer of Nuclear Power – WSJ

No enrichment, but other countries could supply the fuel rods for the peaceful production of energy.

Iranian tanker will be released if oil isn’t going to Syria, says Hunt – BBC News

Foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt says the seized tanker will be released if its oil isn’t headed to Syria.

UK to facilitate release of Iranian tanker if it gets Syria guarantees: Hunt – Reuters

British foreign minister Jeremy Hunt told his Iranian counterpart on Saturday that Britain would facilitate the release of the detained Grace 1 oil tanker if Tehran gave guarantees it would not go to Syria.

Britain Offers To Help Release Tanker If Given Guarantees By Iran

Britain has offered Iran a way out of the crisis over its seized oil tanker in Gibraltar, saying it would “facilitate release” of the Grace 1 if Tehran provided guarantees the vessel would not …

U.K. Offers to Return Seized Iranian Oil Tanker – The New York Times

In exchange, Iran would be asked to guarantee the oil will not go to Syria.

UK: Seized Iranian tanker could be released after ‘guarantees’ | Iran News | Al Jazeera

UK Foreign Minister Hunt says concern was ‘destination not origin’ after ‘constructive call’ with Iranian counterpart.

Detained Iranian tanker will be released if oil isn’t bound for Syria, UK foreign secretary says | Fox News

An Iranian oil tanker held by British forces near Gibraltar will be released if the United Kingdom is assured the oil will not be heading to Syria, London’s top diplomat said Saturday.

Hezbollah warns Iran able to bombard Israel if war starts | Lebanon News | Al Jazeera

Hezbollah leader Sayed Hassan Nasrallah says Israel would not be ‘neutral’ if a war starts between the US and Iran.

EU’s Mogherini cautions against ‘dangerous adventures’ in the Middle East – Reuters

The European Union fully backs Iraq’s efforts to de-escalate growing tensions between the United States and Iran because conflict will have dire consequences for all sides, EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said on Saturday.

Trump axed Iran deal to spite Obama: British ambassador says Trump’s actions ‘diplomatic vandalism’ | Daily Mail Online

Donald Trump abandoned the Iran nuclear deal as an act of ‘diplomatic vandalism’ to spite his predecessor Barack Obama, according to British Ambassador Sir Kim Darroch. Sir Kim Darroch’s 2018 memos accused Donald Trump of ‘diplomatic vandalism’ The ambassador claims that Trump abandoned Iran deal to spite Barack Obama His comments came after Boris Johnson tried to change the US president’s mind Then-Foreign Secretary failed to persuade the White House to save nuclear deal

New leak claims Trump scrapped Iran nuclear deal ‘to spite Obama’ – BBC News

The latest disclosure comes despite a police warning to media about publishing leaked diplomatic memos.

Daily Mail: Leaked cables show UK ambassador saying Trump abandoned Iran deal in act of ‘diplomatic vandalism’ – CNNPolitics

Kim Darroch, the former United Kingdom ambassador to the United States, said the Trump administration was “set upon an act of diplomatic vandalism” in its decision to abandon the Iran nuclear deal, the Daily Mail reported Saturday, citing leaked cables.

UK envoy said Trump left Iran nuclear deal to spite Obama: Report | UK News | Al Jazeera

Leaked cables quote Britain’s US envoy as saying that US president ditched agreement because it was Obama’s deal.

France sees risk of stumble into U.S.-Iranian conflict – Reuters

Iran’s breaching of caps on its uranium enrichment after the United States pulled out of world powers’ nuclear deal with Tehran was “a bad reaction to … (a) bad decision”, raising fears of a stumble into war, France’s foreign minister said.

As rudderless Britain drifts, the predators start to circle | Observer editorial | Opinion | The Guardian

A crisis of confidence at the heart of the country’s institutions allows predators to circle in preparation for rich pickings

President Trump’s Iran Policy Challenged – YouTube

VOA News Published on Jul 14, 2019 Iran is claiming moral victory in its stand-off with the United States over Tehran’s nuclear program. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said Sunday that Washington has failed to win international support for tougher sanctions on Tehran for increasing its production of enriched uranium.

Event Video and Transcripts: The Effect of US Sanctions on Iran’s Economy: Lessons from the Past and Predictions for Future – To Inform is to Influence

The Effect of US Sanctions on Iran’s Economy: Lessons from the Past and Predictions for Future Watch here Read the complete transcript here Dr. Saeed Ghasseminejad is a senior Iran and financial economics advisor at FDD specializing in Iran’s economy and financial markets, sanctions and illicit finance. Born and raised in Iran, Saeed earned his Ph.D.…

Trump’s Iran policy proves the primacy of US power — but to what end? | TheHill

As Iran slowly untethers itself from the Iran nuclear deal’s central constraints on enriched uranium, signaling the deal’s potential collapse, President Trump is proving that U.S. unilateral power remains paramount on the global stage. Trump’s policy to kill the 2015 deal has been prevailing against the objections of the remaining signatories, perhaps the most powerful global counter-coalition possible — China, Russia, Germany, France, the United Kingdom and the European Union. It has been prevailing despite that Iran had until very recently been abiding by the deal following the U.S. withdrawal last May. But without an endgame strategy on Iran that includes an exit ramp off the escalatory ladder of tensions and a solution to the nuclear problem, Trump’s victory will be a Pyrrhic one. ADVERTISEMENT Throughout the Cold War and after, it was dogma that the United States needed partners in order to make sanctions work. With Iran, Trump has shown that the U.S. alone remains a preeminent power that can implement an unprecedented “maximum pressure” campaign of primary and secondary sanctions.

Trump’s critical miscalculation on Iran | TheHill

Iran’s weak military and proximity to heavily-armed, ideologically hostile states underpins a dynamic of strategic paranoia in Tehran.

Inside Iran: What Iranians think of stand-off with US – BBC News

The BBC has been given rare access to Iran to gauge the public mood as tensions with the US deepen.