Information operations · Information Warfare · Iran

Iran Escalation (31)


Anonymous expert compilation, analysis, and reporting.

Tehran is escalating their verbal attacks, taking on more and more countries.  Tehran can increase the number of threats they make at more and more countries, but their capacity to back up any threats will not increase.  The wild cards in this effort are Russia and China, but they appear to not back Iran directly. Iran is alone against the world. 

I give a wee bit of credit to Tehran for not attacking US ships or planes. I also give them credit for not using the small IRGC teams they’ve threatened to use through the years. Tehran knows the repercussions would immediately neuter them and destroy their ability to wage a war, perhaps forever. They’ve effectively been stagnant since 4 November 1979.  More accurately, they have devolved in all areas. 

Iran’s leaders must know they have almost no options except to sue for peace, forgiveness, and request assistance. The bile they must be tasting will remain until they attempt to join the civilized world. If they actively resist, they will be destroyed.  If they do nothing, they will most likely implode.  

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Tehran escalates its campaign to coerce the Europeans into somehow overcoming US pressure to re-negotiate. UN meeting called over Tehran’s breach of agreement. Three GOP senators seek more sanctions, labeling this as blackmail. Tehran is playing a dangerous game somehow imagining that invested European nations will put the interests of a minority of industry lobbyists ahead of more fundamental concerns. Yet AP reports Europeans considering invoking a clause in the agreement allowing sanctions to be imposed, while Pres Macron is reported to be negotiating with Tehran. In the midst of the barrage of threats from Tehran, more invective and threats aimed at the UK over the tanker seizure.

If Tehran continues this escalation game the most likely result will be that Europe will bail out, and Tehran will lose remaining revenues from Europe and its political support. As the Royal Marines demonstrated in Gibraltar, Iran’s shipping assets are highly exposed. The regime is on track for an outcome equalling a de facto siege, where they have no revenue coming in from abroad, and no support other than Muscovy and Beijing playing their own games against the West at Iran’s expense.

So far Tehran’s behavior remains on track for this kind of outcome, unless the regime starts a shooting war first.


GOP senators urge Trump to reject Iran’s ‘nuclear blackmail,’ seek to ‘snapback’ sanctions at the UN | Fox News

Three top GOP senators this week urged President Trump to reject what they describe as Iran’s ‘nuclear blackmail’ in the wake of the rogue nation’s violation of the 2015 nuclear agreement — and highlighted the use of a mechanism in the U.N. resolution enshrining the deal that allows for a “snapback” of sanctions.

Iran hints it could enrich uranium to 5 percent – World News

A top advisor to Iran’s supreme leader has hinted Tehran could boost its uranium enrichment to five percent for “peaceful” aims, ahead of deadline it set for world powers to save a landmark 2015 nuclear deal.

Iran to breach uranium enrichment limits set by landmark nuclear deal – CNN

Tehran has started to increase uranium enrichment beyond the purity threshold it agreed to as part of a landmark nuclear deal, the Iranian government announced Sunday.

Iran ratchets up nuclear tensions with enrichment plan – Reuters

Iran said on Sunday it will boost its uranium enrichment in a few hours above a cap set by a landmark 2015 nuclear deal, a move that could eventually culminate in the return of all international sanctions on Tehran.

Iran set to exceed uranium enrichment limit in 2015 nuclear deal | News | Al Jazeera

Iran announces it will exceed uranium enrichment cap in latest breach of nuclear deal

Iran announced Sunday it will raise its level of uranium enrichment, breaking another limit of its unraveling 2015 nuclear deal with world powers and further heightening tensions with the U.S.

Iran Will Surpass Uranium Enrichment Limits, Officials Say : NPR

Iranian officials announced Sunday that the country would take its second step away from the 2015 nuclear deal by beginning to enrich uranium above permitted levels.

Iran Announces New Breach of Nuclear Deal Limits, and Threatens Further Violations – The New York Times

The country’s deputy foreign minister said Iran would take additional steps in breach of the accord in 60-day intervals unless it receives sanctions relief.

Iran to enrich uranium ‘based on our needs,’ in defiance of 2015 nuclear accord | Fox News

In a second breach of the 2015 nuclear agreement it signed with world powers, Iran on Sunday said it will raise its enrichment of uranium.

Iran Announces New Violation Of Nuclear Deal Amid Heightening Tensions With U.S. | HuffPost

Tehran said Sunday that it will raise its uranium enrichment level beyond the 3.67% limit set in the 2015 nuclear deal.

It is a ‘sad irony’ that U.S. has requested IAEA meeting on Iran, diplomat says – Tehran Times

TEHRAN – Days after Tehran’s stockpile of the enriched uranium surpassed the limit allowed in the 2015 nuclear deal, the International Atomic Energy Agency said on July 5 it will hold an emergency meeting on Iran’s nuclear program next week.

Factbox: The atomic restrictions imposed by the Iran nuclear deal – Reuters

Iran said on Sunday it would further scale back its commitment to the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, raising its uranium enrichment beyond agreed levels to produce fuel for power plants.

Iran vows to increase uranium enrichment levels until US sanctions lifted – YouTube

Sky News Australia Published on Jul 7, 2019 Iran has confirmed it is increasing its level of uranium enrichment, breaking the limit set under the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.

US calls emergency meeting of UN nuclear watchdog group to discuss Iran | TheHill

The United States called an emergency meeting of a United Nations nuclear watchdog group to discuss Iran.

US vs Iran: Tehran foreign minister’s nuclear warning – ‘Deal built on mistrust!’ | World | News | Express.co.uk

IRAN foreign minister Javad Zarif revealed the landmark 2015 nuclear deal with the US was built on “mutual mistrust” amid growing tensions with Washington.

Europe reportedly threatens to activate nuclear-deal clause that could reimpose sanctions and push Iran into China and Russia’s arms | Business Insider

The European Union is threatening to trigger a last-resort mechanism in the Iran nuclear deal that could reimpose economic sanctions on the regime, The Associated Press (AP) reported, citing a European diplomatic official. The European Union is threatening to impose a mechanism in the Iran nuclear deal that could see sanctions reimposed on Tehran. European signatories of the deal have been trying to persuade Tehran to stop increasing its nuclear stockpile since it breached its limit on enriched uranium this Monday. The EU has so far been unsuccessful, and according to one official is now looking to trigger an emergency “dispute resolution mechanism,” the Associated Press reports. That mechanism could ultimately see Europe reimpose sanctions on the regime. Reimposing sanctions on Iran’s already-flagging economy could push Iran further away from the US and Europe and toward China and Russia. Though China and Russia are also JCPOA signatories, and therefore also have an interest in limiting Iran’s nuclear capabilities, they have blamed US sanctions for Iran’s latest nuclear escalations.

Iran plays diplomatic hardball ahead of enrichment deadline | News | Al Jazeera

Tehran set to increase the level of uranium enrichment in a risky bid to force Europe’s hand to buy its oil.

3 million Afghans to flood Europe in event of Iran-U.S. war, Luxembourg FM warns – Tehran Times

TEHRAN – The foreign minister of Luxembourg has warned against an influx of about three million Afghan refugees living in Iran to Europe if even a small clash takes place between Iranian and American military forces.

Iran dismisses reports about seizure of a British oil tanker in Gulf: IRIB – Reuters

Iran has dismissed as “fabricated” reports of the seizure of a British oil tanker in the Gulf, Iran’s IRIB news agency quoted unnamed sources as saying.

Iran denies seizing British-flagged oil tanker in Persian Gulf in retaliation amid rising tensions

Iran has dismissed reports about the seizure of a British oil tanker in the Persian Gulf, according to the country&rsquo;s IRIB news agency.

Confusion And A Sigh Of Relief Over A UK Oil Tanker In The Gulf

Amid tensions in the wake of a Syria-bound Iranian oil tanker being impounded at Gibraltar, news about a UK oil tanker having stopped in the Persian Gulf caused concern on Saturday.

UK-flagged tanker reported ‘safe and well’ after stop in Gulf – Reuters

The UK-flagged supertanker Pacific Voyager that halted in the Gulf on Saturday is “safe and well,” a British official told Reuters, after Iran dismissed reports its Revolutionary Guards had seized the vessel.

Iran: UK ‘should be scared’ of retaliation over seized tanker

Iran said Saturday the United Kingdom should be “scared” of possible retaliation after the Royal Marines captured an Iranian supertanker in Gibraltar.

UK should be ‘scared’ of Tehran’s response over tanker, cleric says – Fars – Reuters

Britain should be “scared” about Tehran’s possible retaliation for the capture of an Iranian supertanker by Royal Marines in Gibraltar, the Fars semi-official news agency on Saturday reported an Iranian cleric as saying.

Iran Threatens To Seize A British Ship After Royal Marines Storm Iranian Oil Tanker – The Drive

A senior Iranian official has threatened to seize a British oil tanker in retaliation for the United Kingdom’s boarding and seizure of the Iranian supertanker Grace 1 off the coast of Gibraltar over suspected sanctions violations yesterday. The incident comes as Iran says it will begin enriching uranium in violation a controversial international agreement that the United Kingdom, along with France and Germany, have been struggling to save after the U.S. government pulled out last year.

Guards commander says Iran should seize UK oil tanker if Iranian vessel not released – Middle East Monitor

 

Iran Demands Britain Release Oil Tanker Detained in Gibraltar

(AFP) — Iran demanded Friday that Britain immediately release an oil tanker it has detained in Gibraltar, accusing it of acting at the bidding of the United States.

Iran Cleric: UK Should Be ‘Scared’ of Retaliation to Seized Tanker, Recall What Happened to US Drone – Sputnik International

Earlier, a contingent of Gibraltar-based UK Royal Marines seized a supertanker reportedly carrying Iranian crude oil to a refinery in Syria, with London claiming the seizure was aimed at enforcing EU sanctions against Damascus. Tehran blasted the move, calling it “a form of piracy.”

Top Iranian commander threatens to seize British oil tanker | JNS.org

Senior IRGC commander Maj. Gen. Mohsen Rezaei says it’s Iran’s “duty” to capture a British vessel unless an Iranian ship detained on suspicion of E.U. sanctions violations is released.

Former Revolutionary Guard commander says Iran should seize U.K. oil tanker – Iran – Haaretz.com

Comments are first Iranian response since supertanker said to be in breach of EU sanctions by carrying a Iranian crude oil to Syria was detained

Iran religious leader threatens UK over capture of oil tanker | News | Al Jazeera

Official says Britain should be ‘scared’ of Iran’s retaliation over seizure of Iranian tanker off the coast of Spain.

Official warns Tehran could seize UK oil tanker if Iranian ship not released – CNN

A senior commander with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps warned Friday that it would be Tehran’s “duty” to seize a British oil tanker if the Iranian tanker being held in Gibraltar is not released.

Seized Gibraltar Tanker Starts What May Be Lengthy Legal Process – Bloomberg

When British Royal Marines helped seize an oil tanker off the southern tip of Spain on Thursday, they opened up a legal wrangle that could drag on for months.

Iran chaos: Britain warned ‘be afraid’ after UK supertanker scare in Gulf | World | News | Express.co.uk

BRITISH maritime officials have announced a UK-flagged supertanker which stopped in the Gulf is ‘safe and well’ after Iran dismissed reports its Revolutionary Guards had seized the vessel.

Iran threatens retaliation after UK seize Iranian oil tanker – YouTube

Fox Business Published on Jul 5, 2019 On Friday, Iran threatened to seize a British ship after Royal Marines captured an Iranian supertanker. Fox News’ Lucas Tomlinson and William Ruger, vice president for research and policy at Charles Koch Institute, react to the threat and the rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran. FOX Business Network (FBN) is a financial news channel delivering real-time information across all platforms that impact both Main Street and Wall Street. Headquartered in New York — the business capital of the world — FBN launched in October 2007 and is the leading business network on television, topping CNBC in Business Day viewers for the second consecutive year. The network is available in more than 80 million homes in all markets across the United States. Owned by FOX, FBN has bureaus in Chicago, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C. and London.

UK finds itself in diplomatic maelstrom with Iran and Spain after seizure of Syria-bound oil-tanker

An official complaint by the Spanish government and the threat by an Iranian official to seize British ships is the latest twist in a strange affair, albeit one which has worrying ramifications at a time of rising tension, provoked by the seizure of an Iranian tanker off Gibraltar by Royal Marines.“We

Royal Marines seize 1,082-foot oil supertanker bound for Syria | ITV News – YouTube

ITV News Published on Jul 4, 2019 Iran has summoned the British ambassador in Tehran to complain about what it says is the illegal seizure of an Iranian oil tanker.

What’s behind the seizure of the Iranian oil tanker in Gibraltar? | Middle East | Al Jazeera

Iran condemned ‘illegal’ seizure of oil tanker in Gibraltar and demanded its immediate release.

US sent warning message to Iran after drone downing: Iranian official – Al Arabiya English

The United States conveyed a message to Iran warning of a limited strike against the country after its unmanned drone was shot down in the Gulf,

The economic impact of US sanctions on Iran’s streets | | Al Jazeera

Many Iranians are more concerned about the economic impact on their lives than the threat of war.

Iran and France working on plan to salvage nuclear deal, Macron says | The Independent

France and Iran have agreed to work together to find conditions for resuming international talks aimed at saving the 2015 nuclear deal, French president Emmanuel Macron has said. Mr Macron said he spoke for more than an hour with Iranian president Hassan Rouhani on Saturday, and said they are trying to find a way to resume dialogue between world powers and Iran.

Iran, France Seek Conditions to Resume Nuclear Talks by Mid-July – Bloomberg

France and Iran agreed to seek conditions by mid-July for the resumption of nuclear talks, presenting a potential diplomatic opening a day before the Islamic Republic was due to announce an acceleration in enrichment activities restricted under the landmark 2015 deal.

Netanyahu: Iran’s uranium enrichment steps like those Nazis took in 1930 – Arab-Israeli Conflict – Jerusalem Post

This enrichment, the prime minister said, “is for only one thing – to prepare nuclear weapons.”

Envoy: The U.S. can’t be a lone cowboy and bring Iran to the table – Middle East – Jerusalem Post

The US could agree to put a hold on plans to send additional forces into the Gulf. In return, Iran would agree not to target US its ships or drones.

US sent message to Iran after drone downing, warning of limited strike: Iranian official

DUBAI: The US conveyed a message to Iran warning of a limited strike against the country after its unmanned drone was shot down in the Gulf, Iran’s civil defense agency chief Gholamreza Jalali was quoted as saying by the Fars news agency on Sunday. “After the downing of its intruding drone, the United States told us through diplomatic intermediaries that it wanted to carry out

Saudi-UAE coalition says it intercepted Houthi drones | News | Al Jazeera

The Houthi drones were destroyed in Saudi Arabia’s airspace according to the military coalition.

Grace 1 super tanker with Ukrainians on board intercepted in British territory of Gibraltar – news ukraine | UNIAN

The authorities of Gibraltar have confirmed that there are Ukrainian citizens among the crew members of the Grace 1 super tanker intercepted in the British territory of Gibraltar on Thursday, July 4, 2019. The exact number of Ukrainian citizens is not known, but reportedly there could be two or three of them there.

Iran steps up nuclear violations; Steinitz: Tehran marching toward bomb – Middle East – Jerusalem Post

“Iran has begun… to raise, to break out of the uranium enrichment curbs that were imposed on it,” Steinitz told Israel’s Ynet TV.

Five things to know about Iran’s breaches of the nuclear deal | TheHill

Iran is set to breach the 2015 nuclear deal for a second time in as many weeks as it ramps up its demands for sanctions relief.

A beginner’s guide to enriching uranium | News | Al Jazeera

Iran says it will begin enriching uranium beyond the 3.67 percent limit set in its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.

Pirates of the Mediterranean

 

UK plays ‘pirate’ for US, seized Iran’s tanker – Galloway – YouTube

RT America Published on Jul 5, 2019 Yesterday, the British Royal Marines seized Iran’s Grace 1 oil tanker, allegedly at the behest of the United States, as the vessel neared the southern tip of Spain. Iranian and Spanish officials are outraged by the move. Former UK MP George Galloway provides perspective on the incident.

Russia says UK’s seizure of Iranian oil shipment ‘plotted beforehand’ – Mehr News Agency

TEHRAN, Jul. 06 (MNA) – Russia condemned the detention of an oil tanker carrying Iranian oil by Gibraltar and UK, saying that ‘the operation had been plotted beforehand and involved corresponding services and agencies of several countries’.

Iranian James Bonds: New TV Series Tries To Improve Image Of Feared Intelligence Services

For the past four weeks, Iranians have been glued to their state-controlled televisions watching a team of highly competent and devoted intelligence officers catch spies and toss corrupt officials …

Trump is leading us toward danger with Iran – The Washington Post

 

The Story of an Air Force Defector to Iran | The National Interest

And she had a medal?