Information operations · Information Warfare · Iran

Iran Escalation (7)


Anonymous expert compilation, analysis, and reporting.

Iran is attacking oil tankers on the far side of the Persian Gulf, attempting to interdict US oil and gas supplies.  Don’t forget, however, other countries receive their oil there, as well.  This may well blow up in Iran’s face if oil consumers begin to hold Iran responsible, and they should.

Iran has responded by quadrupling its uranium enrichment production for the production of nuclear weapons.  My thoughts are it will be too for them to produce any actual bombs before hostilities are over. 

Additionally, there is the war of words.  This is working against Iran in two different ways.  Iran cannot launch any strikes of great magnitude, no matter how much uranium they process. Over two decades of increasing security since 9-11-2001 has decreased the chance of a dirty bomb being smuggled into the US or to a US base or post to near nil, and limiting factor exercises have been rehearsed repeatedly.  What that boils down to is Iran can finger wave (pun intended) as much as they’d like, they just can’t put their money where their mouth is.  Second, Iran has been finger waving constantly since 1979. The world is tired and bored with Iran’s constantly overblown threats, we no longer believe them.  

Expect Russia to back up Iran’s play on words. This would prove very interesting, how their “infoshum” is going to work with the trolls and the GRU folks. Expect new players and networks to suddenly pop up.  

Last are cyberattacks.  Iran’s hackers will do a damn damn on unsecured servers in the US. My guess is that Iran’s cyber attacks will cease to exist when their networks stop functioning. 

If Iran’s threats turn into actions, I fully expect a UN meeting over the issue. Russia will almost certainly try to veto, so a UNSC mandate might not come about. The US Diplomatic Corps is certainly facing an action. It might require a coalition like NATO. Look for Russia trying to be the wild card, all in the name of “peace”. A US unilateral action is not out of play, and if so, expect to see a futuristic Cyber/EW preparation strike before a SEAD attack, followed by the deliberate destruction of all nuclear research and development facilities.  

Iran is not popular in the Islamic world, but the situation is certain to be portrayed as an attack on Islam by Iran – but it’s not.  This puts Islamic nations other than the Middle East, especially in the cyber world, to possibly come into play. 

I fully expect Iran to launch small commando teams against US targets and forces around the world, and yes, they’d be Chickens**t enough to attack civilians. Most of them probably won’t know they’re dead until it is too late. Then they get to meet those 72 Virginians. 

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Tehran appears determined to pour more kerosene on the fire they started.


Iran mocks and taunts Donald Trump – YouTube

Sky News Published on May 20, 2019 Iran’s foreign minister has responded to Donald Trump on social media telling the president to ‘never threaten an Iranian’.

Iran official bemoans “crazy” Trump’s mixed messages, a “confused” White House – CNNPolitics

President Donald Trump is a “crazy president” whose threats against Tehran aren’t going to work, a senior Iranian official said Monday, adding that if the President wants to talk, he’ll not only have to show some respect, but come up with a consistent message.

Iran calls on Trump to address Iranians with respect, not threat of war – Reuters

Iran urged the United States on Monday to address the Islamic Republic with respect, not threats of war, a day after U.S. President Donald Trump stoked concerns about a potential U.S.-Iran conflict.

Iran Quadruples Uranium Enrichment 

Increased production still below weapons grade, but stockpiles would violate 2015 nuclear deal

Iran Says It Is Poised to Exceed Limits on Nuclear Stockpile – WSJ

Iranian officials said that within weeks they could exceed an internationally agreed cap on their stockpile of low-enriched uranium, as tensions between Iran and the U.S. escalated.

Iran increases by fourfold the rate of production of low enriched uranium – Reuters

Iran has increased by fourfold the rate of production of low enriched uranium, an official in Natanz nuclear facility was cited as saying by Tasnim news agency on Monday, a week after Iran officially stopped some commitments under an international nuclear accord.

Iran: President Rouhani seeks new powers to counter US ‘threat’ | World | The Times

President Rouhani has told Iran’s clerics that he will seek expanded powers in an attempt to tackle the threats posed by rising tensions with the US.Describing President Trump’s decision to reimpose sanctions as an “economic war”, Mr Rouhani said he needed unspecified new powers, which could mimic t

Iranian-backed militias carried out Green Zone attack, say Iraqi counterterrorism officials – Washington Times

Members of the Iranian-backed militia Kataib Hezbollah were responsible for Sunday’s rocket attack that landed near U.S. military and diplomatic outposts in Baghdad’s Green Zone, Iraqi counterterrorism officials say.

Donald J. Trump on Twitter: “The Fake News put out a typically false statement, without any knowledge that the United States was trying to set up a negotiation with Iran. This is a false report….”

Donald J. Trump on Twitter: “….Iran will call us if and when they are ever ready. In the meantime, their economy continues to collapse – very sad for the Iranian people!”

Donald Trump: Iran attack would be ‘met with great force’ – Washington Times

President Trump said Monday an Iranian attack on the U.S. or its allies would be “met with great force,” though seemed to downplay the likelihood of an assault.

Trump threatens ‘official end to Iran’ as he vows he’ll never let Tehran acquire nuclear weapons

SHADES OF FIRE AND FURY: It’s not clear who fired the Katyusha rocket that landed near the U.S. embassy in Baghdad yesterday, but shortly afterward, President Trump put Iran on notice, tweeting, “If Iran wants to fight, that will be the official end of Iran. Never threaten the United States again!”

Lindsey Graham on Twitter: “Just received a briefing from National Security Advisor Bolton about escalating tensions with Iran. It is clear that over the last several weeks Iran has attacked pipelines and ships of other nations and created threat streams against American interests in Iraq.”

Lindsey Graham on Twitter: “The fault lies with the Iranians, not the United States or any other nation. If the Iranian threats against American personnel and interests are activated we must deliver an overwhelming military response. Stand firm Mr. President.”

Senator warns of ‘overwhelming’ Iran strike if US threatened | World | thenews.com.pk |

Graham: U.S. Needs ‘Military Response’ if Iran Goes Through with Threats

Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman and South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) proclaimed that the U.S. needed to “deliver an overwhelming military response” to Iran should they follow through on their threats after he was briefed on the situation in the Islamic Republic by National Security Advisor John Bolton.

Graham: Bolton Briefed Me on Iran, Urged Trump to ‘Stand Firm’ | Newsmax.com

Graham: Bolton Briefed Me on Iran, Urged Trump to ‘Stand Firm’

Britain tells Iran – Do not provoke the United States or Trump will retaliate – World | The Star Online

GENEVA (Reuters) – Britain told Iran on Monday not to underestimate the resolve of the United States, warning that if American interests were attacked then the administration of President Donald Trump would retaliate.

Jeremy Hunt warns Iran: Do not underestimate US

Britain has told Iran not to underestimate the resolve of the US, warning that if American interests were attacked then Washington would retaliate.

Tensions swirl around Iran as administration to brief Congress | TheHill

The House and Senate are set to be briefed separately Tuesday on the Trump administration’s Iran policy as tensions in the Persian Gulf region hover at a fever pitch.

The war between the U.S. and Iran has begun, in case you didn’t notice – U.S. News – Haaretz.com

It’s being fought quietly and on Tehran’s terms, which isn’t good news for the oil market or world economy

Iran-US tensions: “The nuclear deal doesn’t work” – YouTube

FRANCE 24 English Published on May 20, 2019 Matthew Brodsky, senior fellow at the Security Studies group on rising US-Iran tensions. Subscribe to France 24 now: https://f24.my/YouTubeEN FRANCE 24 live news stream: all the latest news 24/7

The Latest: Iran appeals to UN chief to help ease tensions – The Washington Post

Iran is urging the UN secretary-general to help launch a diplomatic dialogue to ease the current ‘alarming security situation’ in the broader Persian Gulf region

UN Voices Concern About Rising Tensions Between U.S., Iran

The United Nations has expressed concern about the increasingly confrontational rhetoric between the United States and Iran and called for calm.

Trump: ‘You Do Have a Military-Industrial Complex. They Do Like War.’

(Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images) (CNSNews.com) – President Trump, speaking about hostile foreign powers, Iran especially, told Fox News that if he can solve tensions economically, he prefers that to a military solution.

Trump Rails Against The Military-Industrial Complex When Asked About Iran | The Daily Caller

President Donald Trump railed against what he called &quot;the military-industrial complex&quot; when asked about potential conflict with Iran.

Report: Israel won’t join US-Iran war unless attacked – Israel National News

New report says Israeli, US, officials held meeting to discuss tensions with Iran.

US aircraft carrier seen as barometer of tensions with Iran | Fox News

Ordered by the White House to the Persian Gulf, the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier has become a 100,000-ton barometer of the tensions between Iran and the U.S.

So maybe Trump and John Bolton aren’t so far apart on Iran after all

Last week, we saw a spate of articles, tweets, and opinion pieces making the case that national security adviser John Bolton was manipulating President Trump into a war with Iran.

U.S. Policies Can Manage The Threat Of Iranian Terrorism But Iran’s People Can Eliminate It

Ken Blackwell: Earlier this month, a bipartisan group of over 50 members .05/21/2019 6:56:23AM EST.

A Path to War With Iran

Should Iran leave the JCPOA entirely, expand its nuclear program even gradually, or sponsor direct or proxy attacks on U.S. troops, the United States will be confronted with only two choices—a humiliating climb-down or the use of military force.

Bolton’s war | The Express Tribune

The world cannot depend on the curren­t US admini­strati­on to make sensib­le choice­s

Trump and Iran may be on the brink of a war that would likely be devastating to both sides | Business Insider

Tensions between the US and Iran have reached historic heights in recent weeks, prompting fears of a military confrontation that could escalate into all-out war.

John Bolton, Patrick Shanahan, Mick Mulvaney push U.S. toward Iran war after Trump’s generals depart – Washington Times

President Trump’s brain trust of retired military officers has disappeared just as tensions with Iran, Venezuela and North Korea heat up — and critics say the White House is in danger of rushing to the brink of war under a mostly civilian and increasingly hawkish leadership team.

To defuse this crisis the US must start talking to Iran | Peter Westmacott | Opinion | The Guardian

The risk of a misunderstanding is high – and it could lead to a new conflict in the Middle East, says Peter Westmacott, former ambassador to the US

A war with Iran would be the mother of all quagmires – The Washington Post

It’s easy to start a war with Iran – but it would be difficult to end one.

Trump’s Iran threats part of a troubling — and ineffective — foreign policy pattern

Trump’s Iran threats and tweets part of a troubling — and ineffective — foreign policy strategy he’s tried with North Korea, China and Venezuela

Iran stance straight from Trump’s North Korea playbook – CNN

The Trump administration isn’t exactly hiding the fact that it’s using North Korea playbook on Iran: Use a “maximum pressure” campaign — the same nomenclature was used for Tehran and Pyongyang — to box the adversary into a corner, then try to negotiate.

Will the US go to war with Iran? Your 9 main questions, answered. – Vox

Will the US go to war with Iran? What are Trump, Bolton, and Pompeo thinking? Your main questioned, explained and answered.

Sanders blasts ‘schoolyard bully’ Trump on Iran | TheHill

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) spoke out against President Trump’s rhetoric amid tensions with Iran Monday, calling Trump a “schoolyard bully.”

War with Iran could send oil to $250 — RT Business News

As tensions between Iran and the US continue to escalate, analysts have begun to consider the likelihood and consequences of an Iran war.

Trump’s Rhetoric on Iran Equivalent to ‘Sleepwalking Into Very Dangerous Space’ – Sputnik International

Massoud Shadjareh, the founder of the Islamic Human Rights Commission, joined Radio Sputnik’s Loud & Clear Monday to discuss tensions between the US and Iran after US President Donald Trump threatened to officially “end” Iran if it “wants to fight” this weekend.

 

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