Information operations · Information Warfare · Russia · Ukraine

Conditions Under Which Russia Will Cease Ukraine Aggressions

A Ukrainian political expert says two things will prevent Russian aggression in Ukraine.

  1. Create a strong Ukraine military
  2. International sanctions become strangling to Russia

Ukraine has built up its military, nonstop, since early 2014.  It is expensive, it’s a drain on the Ukraine economy, and all under the threat of an imminent Russian invasion.  Many more years of this buildup would be needed.  In the meantime, constant Russian aggression adds to the battle fatigue of the Ukrainian people.  …to the Ukrainian people, it seems to be worth them sleeping more soundly and having peace of mind.

International sanctions against Russia increase with each Russian crisis. The sanctions are having an effect, but they are not biting deeply enough and are not strangling Russia. Perhaps Russia recognizes that every action is met with something akin to Newton’s Third Law of motion: “For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.” Where this fails is in the application. Proportionality is not the same as equal and opposite. I have yet to understand how sanctions have been applied, to date, against Russia.  

Russia has to be stopped. 

</end editorial>

Political expert names two conditions that could make Russia halt aggression against Ukraine

Russia could stop its war against Ukraine only in case Ukraine strengthens its Armed Forces or the grip of international sanctions puts larger pressure on Russia, that’s according to Serhiy Taran, a Ukraine-based political expert.

“Russia’s maximum today is to go for negotiations, which would allow them maintaining pressure on the Ukrainian leadership and on the Ukrainian state. Indeed, they would agree to such negotiations,” the expert told Pryamiy TV channel. Therefore, he added, if any Ukrainian politician says that “we also need to go for negotiations,” this raises a question of whose side such politician takes.

“The conflict that exists between Russia and Ukraine – and this is an actual war – could only be resolved under two conditions. First: the creation of conditions for a strong army. Second: Russia’s exhaustion from international sanctions,” the analyst said.


4 thoughts on “Conditions Under Which Russia Will Cease Ukraine Aggressions

  1. Joel,
    Are the Old Crows and those others of your ilk doing anything in preparation for the 2020 election.
    Dan Coats and the other Intel chiefs say Russia continues to attack our election systems in prep for 2020.
    Do you guys do volunteer work, or is this strictly in the bailiwick of the government?
    Hope your doing well.
    I’m getting ready for the polar vortex, aka, picking up a handle of Stoli after work.
    Dan …

  2. Thanks for sharing this perspective. I don’t understand how Russian civil society, much less oligarchic society is tolerating the supposed financial squeeze from sanctions. Perhaps a big part of the problem is the trade that continues with Germany …
    From the official statistics office of the European Union:
    “In 2017, Russia was the fourth largest partner for EU imports of goods and the third largest partner for EU exports of goods.”

    “In 2017, manufactured goods dominated exports of goods from the EU to Russia with a share of almost 90 %, while more than two thirds of EU imports of goods from Russia were energy products.”

    “Among the EU Member States, Germany was the largest trading partner with Russia in 2017, with imports of goods of EUR 29 billion and exports of goods of EUR 26 billion. ”

    The fact that the US congress just let sanctions on Deripaska just lapse does not help. It is possible members of the congress and Trump are all under some sort of Russian thumb? If so, this means the situation is dire.
    “A member of President Trump’s transition team was announced as a new board member of a company owned by Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska as soon as the Treasury Department lifted sanctions on Deripaska’s companies Sunday.

    On Sunday, the Treasury Department lifted the sanctions on three companies owned by Deripaska 10 months after it imposed them, citing Russia’s “malign activity around the globe.” Deripaska, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, was also personally sanctioned because the government accused him of threats to rivals, bribing government officials and links to organized crime.”

  3. Wait, Joel, can you remove my full name, moderate my above comment, leave as just my first name? Not that it really matters, I stand by my comments. I just don’t know, these days, it’s just so hard to take an honest stand, especially as a normal civilian. So thanks for what you’re writing about here.

Comments are closed.