Deception · Information operations

PLOS ONE Paper on Fake News


Last Updated: Mon Dec 3 01:37:06 UTC 2018

Kopp, Korb and Mills: Information-theoretic models of deception: Modelling cooperation and diffusion in populations exposed to “fake news”




 


Article LinkInformation-theoretic models of deception: Modelling cooperation and diffusion in populations exposed to “fake news” 

Article Citation:Kopp C, Korb KB, Mills BI (2018) Information-theoretic models of deception: Modelling cooperation and diffusion in populations exposed to “fake news”. PLOS ONE 13(11): e0207383.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0207383 BibTeX


Abstract


The modelling of deceptions in game theory and decision theory has not been well studied, despite the increasing importance of this problem in social media, public discourse, and organisational management. This paper presents an improved formulation of the extant information-theoretic models of deceptions, a framework for incorporating these models of deception into game and decision theoretic models of deception, and applies these models and this framework in an agent based evolutionary simulation that models two very common deception types employed in “fake news” attacks. The simulation results for both deception types modelled show, as observed empirically in many social systems subjected to “fake news” attacks, that even a very small population of deceivers that transiently invades a much larger population of non-deceiving agents can strongly alter the equilibrium behaviour of the population in favour of agents playing an always defect strategy. The results also show that the ability of a population of deceivers to establish itself or remain present in a population is highly sensitive to the cost of the deception, as this cost reduces the fitness of deceiving agents when competing against non-deceiving agents. Diffusion behaviours observed for agents exploiting the deception producing false beliefs are very close to empirically observed behaviours in social media, when fitted to epidemiological models. We thus demonstrate, using the improved formulation of the information-theoretic models of deception, that agent based evolutionary simulations employing the Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma can accurately capture the behaviours of a population subject to deception attacks introducing uncertainty and false perceptions, and show that information-theoretic models of deception have practical applications beyond trivial taxonomical analysis. 


General Explainer: Carlo Kopp and Kevin Korb, We made deceptive robots to see why fake news spreads, and found its weakness, The Conversation, 29th Nov 2018, URI: https://theconversation.com/we-made-deceptive-robots-to-see-why-fake-news-spreads-and-found-a-weakness-104776


Science Explainer: Carlo Kopp, Kevin Korb,and Bruce Mills, Understanding the Inner Workings of “Fake News”, Science Trends, Nov 2018, URI: https://sciencetrends.com/understanding-the-inner-workings-of-fake-news/


Deception Slideshow: Carlo Kopp, Understanding the Deception Pandemic, Presentation Slides, Monash University, Nov 2018, URI: http://users.monash.edu/~ckopp/Presentations/Understanding-The-Deception-Pandemic-2018-B.pdf


Media Interviews:

Drive – ABC Radio 29th Nov 2018 (Fake News @ 2:04)

2SER 107.3FM Sydney 3rd Dec 2018 (How To Stop Fake News In Its Tracks)



Related Publications:

Brumley L.N., Kopp C. and Korb K.B, Cutting Through the Tangled Web: An Information-Theoretic Perspective on Information Warfare, Air Power Australia Analyses, vol IX, issue 2, Air Power Australia, Australia, pp. 1-40
URI: http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-2012-02.html

Kopp C., Considerations on deception techniques used in political and product marketing, Proceedings of the 7th Australian Information Warfare and Security Conference, 4 December 2006 to 5 December 2006, School of Computer Information Science, Edith Cowan University, Perth WA Australia, pp. 62-71.
URI: http://users.monash.edu/~ckopp/InfoWar/Lectures/Deception-IWC7-2006-BA.pdf 
Slides: http://users.monash.edu/~ckopp/InfoWar/Lectures/Deception-IWC7-06-Slides.pdf

Kopp C., Classical Deception Techniques and Perception Management vs. the Four Strategies of Information Warfare, in G Pye and M Warren (eds), Conference Proceedings of the 6th Australian Information Warfare & Security Conference (IWAR 2005), Geelong, VIC, Australia, School of Information Systems, Deakin University, Geelong, VIC, Australia, ISBN: 1 74156 028 4, pp 81-89.
URI:  http://users.monash.edu/~ckopp/InfoWar/Lectures/Deception-IWC6-05.pdf
Slides: http://users.monash.edu/~ckopp/InfoWar/Lectures/Deception-IWC6-05-Slides.pdf

Kopp C., The Analysis of Compound Information Warfare Strategies, in G Pye and M Warren (eds), Conference Proceedings of the 6th Australian Information Warfare & Security Conference (IWAR 2005), Geelong, VIC, Australia, School of Information Systems, Deakin University, Geelong, VIC, Australia, ISBN: 1 74156 028 4, pp 90-97. 
URI: http://users.monash.edu/~ckopp/InfoWar/Lectures/Method-IWC6-05.pdf
Slides: http://users.monash.edu/~ckopp/InfoWar/Lectures/Method-IWC6-05-Slides.pdf

Kopp C., Shannon, Hypergames and Information Warfare, in W Hutchinson (ed), Proceedings of the 4th Australian Information Warfare & Security Conference 2003 (IWAR 2003). Perth WA Australia, 28 – 29 November 2003, Edith Cowan University, Churchlands WA Australia, ISBN: 0-7298-0524-7.

URI:  http://users.monash.edu/~ckopp/InfoWar/Lectures/_JIW-2002-1-CK.pdf
Slides: http://users.monash.edu/~ckopp/InfoWar/Lectures/_JIW-2002-1-CK-S.pdf

Kopp C., Information Warfare Part 1 A Fundamental Paradigm of Infowar, Systems, February, 2000.
URI: http://users.monash.edu/~ckopp/SYSTEMS/IW-Paradigm-0200.html

Kopp C., Moore’s Law and its Implications for Information Warfare, Invited Paper, The 3rd International Association of Old Crows (AOC) Electronic Warfare Conference, Conference Proceedings, Zurich, May 20-25 2000.
URI: http://users.monash.edu/~ckopp/archive/PAPERS/moore-iw.pdf
Slides: http://users.monash.edu/~ckopp/archive/PAPERS/Aoc-moore-97.pps


Dunning Kruger Effect and Groupthink Slideshow:

Kopp C., Avoiding the Pitfalls of the Dunning-Kruger Effect and Groupthink, Seminar Slides, 2016.
URI: http://users.monash.edu/~ckopp/archive/PAPERS/Seminar-DKE+Groupthink-2016.pdf




Legacy InfoWar Teaching Materials (2000-2006)


 
An Quantitative Introductory Course in Information Warfare 
[Honours Advanced Module CSE 468 Information Conflict Semester 1 2006]

 
Topic Schedule:
 
Lecture Number
Lecture
Topic
1
Introduction and overview – Lecture Notes
2
Shannon’s information theory concepts – Lecture Notes
3
Basic game theory concepts – Lecture Notes
4
Four canonical strategies of information conflict vs Shannon’s information theory – Lecture Notes
5
Compound information conflict strategies and using graphs to model these – Lecture Notes
6
Hypergames vs information conflict strategies – Lecture Notes
7
Evolutionary nature of information conflict and biological examples – Lecture Notes
8
Forms of information conflict, Class I, II, III, IV info rmation warfare, denial of service attack classification; Analysis and modelling of information conflict attacks and techniques – Lecture Notes
9
Classical deception techniques, perception management, propaganda, advertising – Lecture Notes
10
Information conflict vs copyright, privacy, spam, espionage, surveillance,hacking and cyberwar, viruses/worms, and identity theft – Lecture Notes
11
Information conflict vs basic concepts and risks in computer security and encryption – Lecture Notes
12
Problems arising in law enforcement and organisational security due to the proliferation of information conflict techniques – Lecture Notes
13
Revision – Lecture Notes

Source: http://users.monash.edu/~ckopp/fake-news-modelling.html

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