Information operations · Information Warfare · Russia · Ukraine

Russia Predicting CW Attack In Donbas – By Ukraine


Lukashevich also added that the Ukrainian armed forces are preparing a provocation in the Donbas with chemical weapons and the involvement of Western forces.”

I can’t help but notice the similarities between Russia predicting a Chemical Weapons (CW) attack in Syria and the recent allegedly CW attack in Syria, and now this prediction of a CW attack in East Ukraine. 

  • Both attacks are to be launched by countries who have historically never launched a CW attack. 
  • Both attacks are being launched against Russian allies
  • Both attacks are being predicted well in advance of the attacks

Suddenly Russia is in the prediction game, whereas real actionable intelligence is rare, difficult to obtain, and usually so sensitive that disclosure would reveal a previously unknown capability. 

In August 2018, Russia began predicting a CW attack in Syria, which occurred in November 2018.  Nobody in history has ever accurately predicted a CW attack that far in advance. 

If both predictions sound contrived (deliberately created rather than arising naturally or spontaneously), that is most likely because they probably are.  Russia has a rich history of fabrications of this type, but it is was always been after an event. Predictive intelligence, especially of this type and this magnitude are truly rare. As a matter of fact, I do not recall any intelligence of this nature, this far in advance, of any event in history. 

Suddenly Russia has developed high-level sources, mid-level sources, or even low-level sources, with prior knowledge of chemical weapons plans, operations, or acquisition in both Syria and Donbas? The likelihood of this occurring in Syria defies logic, but now Russia has the same knowledge of a CW attack in Donbas to be carried out by Ukraine?  

I’m throwing the BS flag.  Not possible.  Russia appears to be planning another provocation in Donbas and is laying the groundwork to blame Ukraine. 

There is an old adage that goes like this: “If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.”  In this case, if it looks bad, if it smells bad, and sounds bad, it’s probably bullshit.

Before I forget, why is the RF Permanent Representative to the OSCE de facto trying to blackmail Ukraine using these words? 

</end editorial>



VSU is preparing a provocation with chemical weapons in the Donbas

21:15 Nov 26, 2018
Russia’s Permanent Representative to the OSCE stressed that if the martial law in Ukraine comes into force, security in the Donbas will be under threat.

The military situation in Ukraine in connection with the incident in the Kerch Strait poses a security threat in the Donbass region, said Alexander Lukashevich, Russia’s permanent representative to the OSCE.

He noted that in the event of the entry into force of the martial law in Ukraine, security in the Donbas will be under threat, while provoking tensions from Kiev are confirmed by recent events, RIA Novosti reports.

Lukashevich also added that the Ukrainian armed forces are preparing a provocation in the Donbas with chemical weapons and the involvement of Western forces.

Previously, three ships of the Ukrainian Navy violated the Russian border and were detained by the border guards of the FSB of the Russian Federation after ignoring the legal requirements of the Russian services .

Source: https://tvzvezda.ru/news/vstrane_i_mire/content/201811262115-uynf.htm

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