Anonymous expert compilation, analysis, and reporting.
Propaganda machine activity remains subdued. Reports Russia jammed GPS during NATO Trident Juncture EX. Avangard MaRV reverberates in media. PD-50 dock believed unrecoverable, V-MF now lacks refit facilities for larger warships. More Su-57 propaganda. Excellent historical backgrounder on the evolution of Soviet/Russian propaganda by Smagliy – digital media have not changed the fundamental model involved. Kerch killer Roslyakov reported to have been an ardent Putinist and Russian nationalist based on social media postings. Chaly briefs on Russian effort to embarrass US political figures using fake phone calls from Ukrainian embassy in DC. MH17 families plead with the Vozhd for information. Rohrabacher loses his seat in Congress, denying Russia one of its few advocates in Congress. Armistice Day – Goble on “Weimar Russia” – was Russia’s post Cold War descent into the abyss inevitable or not?
Volkov @ Moscow Carnegie Center reports on his informal survey that disagrees with public surveys on Russian beliefs about Salisbury. The Proud Bear satire generates media coverage. Russia’s espionage in Vienna produces blowback, GRU handler outed by Russian media.
Iran declares sanctions ineffective, while Iran likely to be excluded from SWIFT. Fixler and Cilluffo on Iranian cyber. Updates on Saudis, Yemen, Turkey and Libya – we may be seeing a Wagner intervention.
GPS geolocation services were disrupted in Lapland region in northern Finland and similar problems were earlier reported by the Norwegian military, Yle news agency reports. It is noted that the Finish Defense Force first detected the malfunction and warned the Aviation Navigation Center about the interference in their work. According to the Finish military, the territory from northern Rovaniemi to the Norwegian border and east of Kittila to the border of Russia was affected. Yle notes that the Russian Federation is suspected of interfering with the work of satellite navigation systems which occurred during the NATO Trident Juncture exercises in Norway. Earlier, the head of the Marine Corps of the Netherlands, General Jeff Mac Mootry reported that Russian warships and aircraft tried to provoke British and Dutch military at the NATO exercises in the Arctic.
RUSSIA is finalising a nuclear weapon capable of wiping out an entire city by descending on Earth “like a meteorite” at 20 times the speed of sound, Vladimir Putin has claimed, sparking World War 3 fears.
The Kremlin claim that their new hypersonic nuclear missile system (left and top right) will be operational by 2019. News comes as Trump says he will pull out of a historic missile treaty.
Vladimir Putin says his new weapon can dodge missile defences and wreak destruction on a terrifying scale.
When PD-50, Russia’s largest floating dry dock, sank, Russia was left with no facility within which to retrofit the Admiral Kuznetsov. Russia’s only aircraft carrier was scheduled to be modernized and returned to active duty in 2020, but an investigation is being launched into what caused the dry dock to sink and whether or not…
The sinking of Russia’s largest dry dock — in an incident last month that also damaged the navy’s flagship — has highlighted some of the limits of Moscow’s efforts to modernize the country…
The only dock suitable for repairing and upgrading Russia’s sole carrier sank in an accident late last month, throwing a wrench into the navy’s plans.
Military exercises are often viewed as geopolitical tools used to boost stability and enhance deterrence. However, they can sometimes have the exact opposite effect: increasing instability and contributing to dangerous levels of escalation. Nowhere is this more true than in the case of NATO and Russia.
MOSCOW, November 9. /TASS/. Russia’s cutting-edge Sukhoi Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jet incorporates the functions of the US F-22 and F-35 fighter planes but outperforms them, Chief Designer – Director of the Sukhoi Design Bureau Mikhail Strelets said in a live broadcast of the Zvezda TV Channel on Friday. The fighter jet is capable of effectively accomplishing missions to destroy both air and ground targets as compared to the US aircraft that are focused only on specific tasks, the Sukhoi chief designer said. “The F-22 was initially developed as an aircraft to gain air superiority. But eventually the Americans realized that it was essentially wrong to design the aircraft only for carrying air-to-air missiles and made an attempt to fit air-to-surface weapons into the existing configuration of its compartments. But the configuration of the compartments did not allow placing larger cargoes,” Strelets said. The designers of the Su-57 (PAK FA, the Prospective Airborne Complex of Frontline Aviation) faced the task of developing a multi-functional aircraft, he said. “Regarding the load the plane can carry to its weight, the greater this ratio, the higher the plane’s quality from the viewpoint of the carrier. The same relates to the volume and the weight of the arsenal of weapons placed in its internal holds. And it can be said that by this indicator the Su-57 has no rivals among fifth-generation planes,” Strelets stressed, noting that the PAK FA was also unrivaled by its acceleration capabilities. “It so turned out and we didn’t choose this specially but if you sum up 22 and 35, you get the figure 57,” the Sukhoi chief designer said. More: http://tass.com/defense/1030166
The Su-57 nomenclature for Russia’s fifth-generation stealth fighter was derived from ‘adding up’ the numbers ‘22’ and ‘35’ from the US-made F-22 and F-35 aircraft to indicate that the Russian jet incorporates the capabilities and features of both. Russia’s Sukhoi Su-57 incorporates the functions of the US F-22 and F-35 fighter planes but outperforms them, Chief designer and Director of the Sukhoi Design Bureau, Mikhail Strelets said on Zvezda TV on Friday, TASS reported. “It so turned out and we didn’t choose this specially but if you sum up 22 and 35, you get the figure 57,” the Sukhoi chief designer said. The Russian fighter jet is capable of accomplishing missions to destroy both air and ground targets as compared to the two US aircraft that are focused on either of the specific tasks, the Sukhoi chief designer said. “The F-22 was initially developed as an aircraft to gain air superiority. But eventually the Americans realized that it was essentially wrong to design the aircraft only for carrying air-to-air missiles and made an attempt to fit air-to-surface weapons into the existing configuration of its compartments. But the configuration of the compartments did not allow placing larger cargoes (weapons),” Strelets said. The designers of the Su-57, earlier designated PAK FA- (Prospective Airborne Complex of Frontline Aviation) faced the task of developing a multi-functional aircraft, he said adding that the Russian aircraft has a higher power to weight ratio than the American planes. The Russian PAK FA fighter jet flew for the first time in 2010 and was designated as ‘Su-57’- the serial index number of Russian military aviation- in 2017.
Katerina received a doctorate and master’s degree in history at the Central European University in Budapest, a Master’s degree in European Union law at the University of the Reding in the UK and a bachelor of humanities from the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy. Also: https://day.kyiv.ua/uk/article/den-planety-nota-bene/yak-pracyuye-zahidna-ekspertna-mashyna-na-sluzhbi-kremlya </end editorial> (Translation from Ukrainian by my Chrome browser) Katerina…
Vladislav Roslyakov, who organized the shooting and explosion in a college in occupied Kerch, judging by his page on the social network, was a fan of Russian President Vladimir Putin and supported the Russian aggression against Ukraine. This is stated in the message “InfoVoyska Ukraine” on Twitter , according to the results of the analysis of the social networks of the Kerch shooter Vladislav Roslyakov, reports Tsenzor.NET . “Apparently, today’s terrorist who attacked college in the occupied Ukrainian city was a follower of russism and a lover of Putin. So everything is logical,” the report says.
Ukrainian Ambassador to the United States Valeriy Chaly said that the systemic use of information war elements against Ukraine was extended in the United States. “There have been again several attempts of fraud in different states of the US. We have recorded attempts of reaching governors to organize provocations (they were promptly stopped by us),” the head of the diplomatic mission wrote on his Facebook page. Valeriy Chaly said that the anti-Ukrainian activities take place in big and small cities. “The attackers take advantage of the credulity typical of Americans. The last example was the failed (professionally exposed) attempt to reach the mayor of San Francisco and the conversation with the mayor of Sevastopol (California) of the fake ambassador of Ukraine, which, unfortunately, did take place,” said the ambassador. Chaly believes that Russia is responsible for these provocations. “We understand your goals and the scale of the resources involved. We know that you are not going to stop this systemic attack. That is why we will work more actively in the United States and will protect the national interests of our country, strengthening the strategic partnership between Ukraine and the US,” the ambassador addressed to the organizers of the information attacks. At the beginning of November, Valeriy Chaly, the Ambassador of Ukraine to the United States of America, was targeted by massive attack by prankers who phoned politicians on his behalf.
Letter calls on Trump to push Russian leader for truth about Buk missile that struck Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over Ukraine
Relatives of the victims published an open letter to the President on Friday.
Rep. Rohrabacher lost to Harley Rouda after three decades in office over his ties to Putin and Russia.
The Associated Press has declared Democrat Harley Rouda to be the winner in his House race against Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, R-Calif., a few hours after Rouda declared victory. Rohrabacher, a 30-year incumbent and staunch Trump ally, has yet to concede the race. Hours earlier, Rouda claimed the race after breaking away with the lead. “After careful consideration of the data provided by the fantastic team at the Orange County Registrar, my staff and I are now confident that we have won the Congressional race in California’s 48th district,” Rouda tweeted in the mroning. Rohrabacher has also been known for his pro-Russia views, prompting some critics calling him Russian President Vladimir Putin’s favorite congressman.
Staunton, November 11 – How wars end is at least as important as how they begin, although that aspect of conflict seldom attracts as much attention. When there is a clearly defined and recognized victor and an equally clearly defined vanquished, peace is possible. When one or both of these is lacking, any such war is not really over but only put on hold. World War II ended in the first way with an unconditional surrender of the vanquished and a celebration of triumph by the victors, an end that forced the former to reject forever the past that had led them to war and that also caused the latter to work hard to help the vanquished do that and be absorbed back into the international community. But World War I, which came to an end 100 years ago today, did not conclude that way. It ended with an armistice not a peace, and thus contained within itself the seeds for another war only a generation later. Those who clearly “lost” were not compelled to admit that and instead felt they had been “stabbed in the back,” leading them to seek enemies at home and abroad. And those who equally clearly “won” did not see their victory as requiring them to work to change and then re-integrate those who lost but simply to punish those they were in a position to punish, thus exacerbating the situation of the other side and ensuring that the two would have to resume the fight all too soon. Something similar happened at the end of the Cold War. The West went out of its way to avoid proclaiming victory lest it provoke a negative reaction in a nuclear-armed Moscow but then engaged in a policy which increasingly looks like weak neglect rather than tough love and so opened the way to revanchist attitudes that have now come to flower in Russia. The Russians were not compelled to reject the Soviet past; and because they were not, they are increasingly turning back to it. Perhaps worse still, they are seeking scapegoats for their defeat at home and abroad, the kind of search that in and of itself so wounds a society that many see a new war as a means of healing rather than of destruction. Many in the West frightened by what they saw in the post-Soviet space after 1991 talked about “Weimar Russia,” about the way in which the collapse of empire and reduction in status was breeding revanchism. But few argued that this reflected the lack of clarity about what happened in 1991 because to do so would open issues the West preferred to ignore. Obviously, the Cold War was not a conflict exactly like World War I or World War II; but the way it ended with triumphalism and neglect. on one side, and anger and humiliation and suffering, on the other, is less different from what happened at the 11th hour of the 11th month of 1918 than many want to admit. On this centenary of the armistice intended to complete “the war to end all wars,” we should reflect upon these similarities, lest the old conflict be resumed in a world where another war could really be the last one, not because it would have victors and vanquished but because it would leave no one uninjured or even alive.
Perhaps the most significant intellectual legacy of World War I was the end of the idea of inevitable progress.
Columnist of The Washington Post Fareed Zakaria forecasts that Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is an advocate of “the politics of eternity,” according to historian Timothy Snyder’s theory, may not win. Putin is an advocate of “the politics of eternity,” according to historian Timothy Snyder’s theory.
Paul Goble Staunton, November 9 – Moscow media have played up poll results suggesting that only three percent of Russians think that the Kremlin was behind the poisoning of the Skripals in the United Kingdom. It is entirely possible that that is what those polled said – Russians know the answers the powers that be want – but it is clear that far more actually believe the Kremlin did it. That is the conclusion Denis Volkov of the Moscow Carnegie Center draws in an article today recounting his conversations with Russians in informal settings. “Publicly,” he notes, “the majority of Russians aren’t ready to acknowledge Russian interference in the affairs of other countries” (carnegie.ru/commentary/77678). “But in less official conversations, many more people allow that such interference has occurred.” This difference reflects not only the knowledge Russians have of what the Kremlin wants to hear but also their sense that they are “not observers on the side but participants in the information clash between Russia and the West.” It is those calculations rather than the success of Russian government propaganda that explains these differences, Volkov continues; and it is “indicative” that large shares of those sampled refused to give a direct answer, an indication not of the success of propaganda but of their personal understanding of what is required regardless of the facts. Focus groups confirm this in the Skripal case and others. Initially Russian participants are reluctant to answer; but as they become more comfortable, they are quite willing first to allow that Moscow may have been behind this or that action in a foreign country and then to suggest that there is no other reasonable explanation. Such differences between what Russians will say to pollsters and what they actually believe “can hardly be explained only by the fact that people conceal their opinions because they are afraid of being punished by their superiors,” the Moscow Carnegie Center expert suggests. As this gap comes out, many Russians respond by laughing at the situation. “In other words,” Volkov continues, “a significant number of Russians although they do not want to publicly acknowledge the responsibility of Russia for interference in the affairs of other countries, do not doubt that such interfere really has occurred and do not see any problems with it. “Ever more [Russians] today are certain that Russia has again become ‘a great power,’” and they believe that this status must be “periodically confirmed” by actions that would be inappropriate if undertaken by a country lacking that status. Russia must take tough actions, they say, because otherwise the West won’t recognize Russia’s power. Moreover, he adds, “by violating international norms, [their] country in the opinion of a significant number of people is doing nothing different than what other great powers do: ‘All do these things,’” Russians say. They also believe that if challenged, Moscow must not back down because to do so would be to show weakness and thus be less than the great power Russia is. As a result of this mix of feelings and calculations, “a quite bizarre picture” emerges. “Pubicly the majority of Russians are not ready to admit the interference of hteir country in the affairs of other countries. Formally they share the position which government propaganda adopts” on such things. “But in more precise and less official conversations, a much larger number of people allow that such interference has occurred than the polls show.” At the same time, Volkov says, “this doesn’t mean that they agree with Western evaluations of these events and simply are afraid to declare this publicly.” And Volkov concludes: “the majority of Russians consciously reproduce the official version from government propaganda even if they themselves do not believe it is genuine because they feel themselves not as outside observers but as participants” in the battle their country is engaged in with the outside world.
Choke On Coffee Warning applies. A satirical group calling themselves Proud Bear (@Pr0ud_Bear), complete with web site, bought and is displaying billboards claiming ‘Russian’ victory for playing a part in the Brexit vote. From their website, We are Proud Bear. We are collective of Russia GRU agents retrained in fields of digital telephony and Myspace.…
A bunch of tongue-in-cheek billboards are intended to “celebrate” Russia’s role in Brexit as some Kremlin critics have questioned whether Russia has meddled in the 2016 vote on leaving the European Union.
Mysterious billboards celebrating the UK and Russia’s “Brexit collaboration” have been erected across London.
A retired army colonel is said to have been spying for Russia for several decades.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has told his Austrian counterpart that Russia was unfairly being accused of espionage after Vienna said it was probing a former Austrian colonel for allegedly…
A former colonel of the Armed Forces of Austria, who was detained on suspicion of working for Russian intelligence, transferred information regarding NATO to the Russian Federation. This writes Salzburger Nachrichten, with reference to the messages of former colleagues of the agent. The information concerned the habits and shortcomings of the military leadership of NATO, as well as attitudes in army units. We recall that the detained ex-colonel is suspected of having “leaked” information to the Russian special services for about 20 years. Earlier workers of the Internal Security Agency of Poland detained a Russian spy as TVP Info reported. According to the information, the name of the detained is V. Marek. It is known that he was in touch with the Russian intelligence officers under diplomatic cover in the embassy in Warsaw and provided the information about the investments. The suspected was also interested in the work of Energy Ministry, particularly, the construction of ‘Nord Stream-2’. It is noted that the actions of the Internal Security Agency were agreed with the special services of other EU countries. The suspected is arrested for three months.
Austria has arrested a retired army colonel on suspicion of spying for Russia, chancellor Sebastian Kurz has said. Allegations ‘don’t improve relations between Russia and the European Union’, says the Austrian chancellor.
Austria’s government wants answers from the Russians, after the revelation that a recently-retired colonel may have been a spy.
In the scandal with the participation of the former Colonel of Austria, who was detained because of suspicion of working at the FSB of Russia for two decades, also appears employee of the GRU of Russia Dmitry Bayborodin. This was written by Russian journalist Sergey Kanev on Facebook. “Dmitry Vladimirovich Baiborodin (b. 1974) graduated from the Military University of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation (faculty of foreign languages and foreign military information), then the Military-Diplomatic Academy (in slang of pears” Conservatory “), in 2004 worked in the representative office of the company” SIEGLOCH MASCHINENBAU GMBH and GRUBER & CO. GRUPPEN GMBH “. In recent years, Grushnik has traveled between Austria and Germany and presented himself as a Russian businessman (there was even a page on social networks). I tried to talk to him, but he blocked me,” he wrote. Kanev notes that this is not the first high-profile espionage scandal in Austria of this kind. “In June 2007, Austrian intelligence services detained a representative of Roscosmos, Vladimir Vozhzhov, who at that time was a relative of Vladimir Putin (married to Olga Tsomaeva, sister of the former wife of GDP Lyudmila Putin). According to the Austrian counterintelligence, Vozhov was engaged in espionage and tried to recruit an important spy and tried to recruit an important counter. Austria. Then Lyudmila Putina raised a terrible noise and all the forces were thrown into the rescue of Vozhzhov, “he said.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Saturday that U.S. sanctions announced last week have had no effect on Iran’s economy because Washington had already practically reimposed them earlier.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said Saturday that newly imposed U.S.
Swift has dealt a “harsh blow” to free trade by suspending Iranian banks from the financial messaging network that connects the world’s lenders, according to Europe’s largest mechanical engineering industry group.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Thursday that the financial messaging service that moves money around the global banking system will be cutting off Iran’s Central Bank.
The White House is betting sanctions will weaken the regime, and maybe hasten its demise. European governments and U.S. intelligence officials are skeptical.
Iran is likely to ride out the storm from U.S. oil sanctions, suffering recession but no economic meltdown, thanks to rising crude prices and deepening divisions between the United States and other major powers, officials and analysts say.
An ascendant New York lawmaker could provide an unlikely boost to parts of President Trump’s foreign policy in the Democratic-controlled House, Iran hawks believe.
Annie Fixler Policy Analyst Frank Cilluffo Auburn University CEEW Board of Advisors EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In 2016, the industrial computer security firm MalCrawler conducted an experiment: It created an elaborate network to observe the actions and gauge the intentions of malicious cyber operators. The firm concluded that hackers from different countries typically exhibit distinct behaviors. Chinese hackers pilfered “anything that looked like novel technical information.” Russians penetrated systems, “mapping them and implanting hard-to-find backdoor access for potential future use.” In contrast, Iranian hackers sought to do “as much damage as possible.”1 This is consistent with Iranian cyber behavior: Over the past decade, the Islamic Republic has shown it will exploit deficient cyber defenses to wreak havoc on its adversaries’ networks. The regime is now bolstering its capacity to cause even greater harm in the future. Comparatively lacking in conventional forms of military, economic, and geopolitical power, the Islamic Republic leverages asymmetric capabilities to wage war against the United States and its allies. These methods include sponsorship of terrorists and militia forces, hostage taking, overseas assassinations, ballistic missiles, and – potentially – nuclear weapons. The latest additions to this asymmetric toolkit are cyber capabilities and, specifically, cyber-enabled economic warfare – a strategy involving cyber attacks against an adversary’s economic assets in order to reduce its political and military power.2Consistently, the evidence reveals that the Iranian regime and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are sponsoring these malicious Iranian cyber operations. The Islamic Republic accelerated its pursuit of offensive cyber capabilities in 2009-2010 after falling prey to the Stuxnet virus, reportedly engineered by the U.S. and Israel.3 Less than two years later, the Islamic Republic retaliated against U.S. economic sanctions with cyber attacks on American banks, along with a costly attack against regional rival Saudi Arabia.4 After those two operations, the Islamic Republic’s cyber activities appeared to shift. As Tehran sought to negotiate relief from U.S. sanctions, its malicious cyber activity focused primarily – although not exclusively – on its regional adversaries, and simultaneously, the regime also expanded its cyber infiltration operations around the world. Through these campaigns, Iranian hackers are able to hone their skills on soft targets and pre-position assets for future conflicts, both cyber and otherwise.5
The leader of the Lebanese Shi’ite group Hezbollah insisted that one of its Sunni allies be given a portfolio in a new Lebanese cabinet, and indicated it would be ready to go back to square one in negotiating a government if necessary.
Norway announced on Friday that it was suspending new licenses for arms exports to Saudi Arabia following recent developments in the Gulf kingdom and the situation in Yemen.
Fierce battles taking place over strategically important, Houthi-held Red Sea port city, Yemeni government says.
The decision to stop aerial refueling of Saudi jets was welcomed as a positive step, but few forecast a significant impact on the war.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the audio recordings were handed over to the U.S. and other Western countries. Saudi Arabia has denied its Crown Prince was involved in the murder.
The move was hailed by critics of the U.S. role in the civil war but they called for halting other support.
In major policy shift, the United States military will stop refueling Saudi-coalition aircraft involved in fighting in Yemen, officials said.
Saudi Arabia’s former intelligence chief said the kingdom would never accept an international investigation into the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
Recordings related to Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s death have been passed on to Saudi Arabia, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany and France, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Saturday.
The Turkish Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) and armored vehicle maker BMC signed a contract for the production of modern Altay main battle tanks. According to local media, the contract includes mass production and life-cycle logistical support for 250 units. Under the deal with BMC, the company will initially produce 40 Altay tanks, with the first to be delivered to the military in 18 months. The financial value of the agreement was not revealed. The batch of 40 new tanks will be delivered in an Altay-T1 configuration with an active protection system (APS) called AKKOR. The new APS is designed to detect tank-targeting rockets and missiles and hit them in midair. The system is designed by Aselsan.
An intense labor shortage is pushing Israeli tech firms to hire Palestinians in the West Bank, establishing new economic links between the two sides despite persistent political tension and the continuing absence of a peace agreement.
Billionaire Evgeny Prigozhin attended talks between Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, the head of the Libyan National Army, in Moscow on November 7, according to video footage published on the Libyan military’s official YouTube channel. The newspaper Novaya Gazeta, which has recently published two revelatory articles about Prigozhin, was the first to notice the catering tycoon’s presence at the negotiations.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Russian businessman with ties to Russian president Vladimir Putin, was captured on video among the members of the …
A video shows a Russian oligarch with close personal ties to President Vladimir Putin and who owns Russia’s best-known private security firm attending a November 7 meeting in Moscow between high-le…