Anonymous expert compilation, analysis, and reporting.
In 2014 Dr Sergei Glazyev publicly advocated that Ukraine be dismembered, and destroyed before it could become strong enough to challenge Russian expansion into Eastern Europe.
It would appear that Khramchikhin is attempting to produce a strategic rationale and justification for what we might now label the “Glazyev Doctrine” – although the fundamentals of this doctrine, the annihilation of the Ukrainian state, Ukraine’s national identity and culture, and language, have been implicit in much of what the Putin regime has pursued since 2014. Khramchikhin, publishing in a major military journal, is formalizing what Glazyev struggled to articulate coherently.
When Ukrainians talk about “Eternal War” or “The Forever War” this is the stark reality they confront – 800 years of Russian attacks, invasions, occupations, and Russian elites like Glazyev and Khramchikhin who fervently believe that Ukrainians are not a nation, and are all Nazis, who in the words of Dugin, should all be subjected to genocide.
Ukraine in many ways confronts a similar problem to that Israel has confronted since 1948 – a neighbor who fervently believes Ukrainians have no right to exist or to survive as a nation or community with its own culture and identity.
This is something most Western elites and media seen unable to comprehend. Just as during the 1940s they were unable to understand that the Holocaust might be real.
Saturday, September 8, 2018
Ukraine is Russia’s Enemy and Must Be Broken Apart or Absorbed, Khramchikhin Says
Staunton, September 8 – All too many people in Moscow view Ukraine as a fraternal republic that NATO is using against Russia, Aleksandr Khramchikhin says. In fact, Ukraine is Russia’s mortal enemy and will continue to constitute a serious threat unless and until it is reabsorbed by Russia or broken up into a number of less-threatening mini-states.
In a major article in Nezavisimoye voyennoye obozreniye, the deputy head of the Moscow Institute for Political and Military Analysis argues that most Russians don’t view Ukraine as a credible enemy except to the extent that it works with the Western alliance. But that perspective is completely wrong (nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2018-09-07/1_1012_ukraine.html).
On the one hand, NATO which hasn’t fought a war against a major country for decades is gaining far more information about how to do so from Ukrainians who have than it is providing to the Ukrainians. And on the other – and this is even more important, Khramchikhin says, Ukraine really is a threat to Russia.
While many Russians laugh when Kyiv says that its army is the strongest in Europe, the Moscow analyst says, if one allows for the fact that Ukrainian officials mean this in the American sense of land forces, that many Russian units aren’t in Europe, and Turkey isn’t a play, then “the Ukrainian army really is the strongest in Europe.” And Russia needs to recognize this.
And while many Russians also laugh at Ukrainian propaganda, in fact, Khramchikhin says, that effort has been remarkably successful in convincing Ukrainians that despite the shortcomings of their own government, Russia is the enemy and that no one should take part in any new Maidan because it would only work to Putin’s benefit.
One consequence both of this propaganda and of Russian actions is that “the Ukrainian idea is anti-Russian by definition. Therefore,” the Moscow analyst says, “Russia and Ukraine can be either one country or enemies. No third possibility is possible.” And thus all talk in Moscow about a single united Ukraine is dangerous nonsense.
Indeed, Khramchikhin says, “any supporter of a single independent Ukraine already automatically cannot be considered a pro-Russian politician. He can only exploit the theme of ‘brotherhood’ in order to drink our ‘blood’ (money, oil, and gas0 without getting anything back in exchange.”
But many Russians forget this. Not only do Russian firms continue to cooperate with Ukrainian ones, but Russia today is the largest investor in a country that is from the outset Russia’s enemy. The US wouldn’t tolerate this from its companies; Russia shouldn’t either, the analyst says.
“The final goal of Russia must be the territorial disintegration of Ukraine, something which must be achieved by non-military means.” Moscow has long made it clear that it isn’t about to launch a full-scale invasion: it doesn’t have the resources to carry one out at present, Khramchikhin says.
But it must be ready for a Ukrainian provocation and be ready to act in ways so that it is not caught in a trap. The Moscow analyst says that the way the Russian side should proceed is to apply to Ukraine “the Georgian variant of a decade ago.”
“This means,” he says, “the restoration of the territorial integrity of the DNR and LNR … their diplomatic recognition, the over deployment of Russian troops on their territories … and the complete destruction of the Ukrainian armed forces … but without the occupation of even a small part of Ukrainian territory.” That is, Russia should inflict a defeat and then leave.
After that, Khramchikhin says, Moscow must promote outmigration from Ukraine so as to weaken that country and strengthen Russia without having to rely on culturally dissimilar people from Central Asia and the Caucasus. Right now, the Russian government is doing exactly the reverse, limiting immigration from Ukraine and sponsoring it from elsewhere.
That raises the question Pavel Milyukov asked of the tsar’s government in 1916: “is this stupidity or is this treason?”
In this new reality, Russians must stop talking about any NATO advance or about NATO as the enemy in Ukraine. “Our enemy is Ukraine itself, an extraordinarily dangerous one despite its weaknesses,” and consequently, Moscow must do what is necessary to “transform it into several small states.”
“Some of these will really be pro-Russian and in the future can be taken into the Russian Federation. Others, even while remaining anti-Russia will lose any real potential for inflicting any harm on us. And the ideological bases of Ukrainian Russophobia in this situation will to a large extent lose any meaning.”
Moscow must also stop obsessing about the inviolability of international borders, Khramchikhin says. They’ve been violated enough over recent decades, including most prominently with the disintegration of the USSR. And Russians would do well to remember that it was Ukraine that destroyed the Soviet Union, not anyone else.
“Without the Baltics and the Trans-Caucasus,” he continues, “the country could have lived peaceably but without Ukraine it lost any meaning … Moreover, one should not forget how thousands of militants from Ukraine fought on the side of Chechen separatists in the 1990s … for an ‘independent Ichkeria.’”
There is a real danger that some in Moscow will overlook all this in the pursuit of some illusory “strategic partnership” with the West, but it is critically important, Khramchikhin says, that Russia begin to “think realistically” and act accordingly with regard to Ukraine – and do this as soon as possible.
First and foremost, it must shore up the DNR and the LNR. “Russia’s behavior toward them now has become openly sadistic,” with Moscow blocking outmigration from them and thus creating a situation in them that serves to mobilize the rest of Ukraine against not just the DNR and the LNR but against Russia as a whole.
In that way, Moscow’s current approach to these two republics is undermining its broader interests and helping the country that cannot and will not ever be anything but Russia’s enemy, he concludes.
Will the disintegration of Ukraine begin?
Why Moscow needs to urgently review the policy towards Kiev
About the author: Alexander Anatolyevich Khramchikhin – deputy director of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis.
The leadership of Nezalezhnaya does not leave any attempts to resolve the accumulated problems by force. Reuters photo
What is happening in Ukraine, has long been giving the Russians watching it a lot of sincere fun. Indeed, what is, for example, the recent story of the “Babchenko murder” (all humorists and satirists are biting their elbows with envy). It is also accepted to mock the Ukrainian army and the whole process of military construction in this country. Again, examples are enough. For example, an amazing story with the purchase in the beginning of this year of Ukraine in the Czech Republic through Poland 200 infantry fighting vehicles BMP-1.
In this story, everything is fine.
First, the procurement procedure: on the way from the primary seller to the final customer, the cars went up about 8 times! This is another confirmation of the fact that in Ukraine there is not at all high corruption, as it is commonly believed, everything is much worse: Ukraine and corruption are simply synonyms. It is corruption that kills this country as no external enemies have ever dreamed.
Secondly, the very fact of purchasing 200 BMP-1. Production of these machines in the USSR began in 1966, was completed in 1983 (in Czechoslovakia continued until 1988). To say that these machines are obsolete today is not to say anything.
At the time of the collapse of the USSR in terms of the potential of the Armed Forces and the military-industrial complex, Ukraine shared the 3-4th place in the world with China, by most parameters it exceeded China at that time. Today the phrase “Ukraine excels China” by itself does not even pass as an anecdote, regardless of what is being discussed (well, except in the sphere of corruption). And the purchase in the small Czech Republic of 200 very old BMPs (and even at the price of almost new ones) is a symbol of absolute degradation not only of the military industrial complex of Ukraine, but of the country as a whole. In “wadded” Russia this is absolutely inconceivable today, the gap in development levels between the former “brothers” is simply huge, although when the USSR collapsed, there was practically no gap, in many respects Ukraine was ahead, while Ukraine’s prospects at that time were significantly better than Russia.
The only thing that scares a significant part of our patriotic public is the cooperation of Ukraine with NATO. In particular, the training of Ukrainian soldiers by NATO instructors. In domestic usage the phrase “trained according to NATO standards” sounds like a synonym for getting trained by some completely new magic possibilities, from which we need to tremble tremendously.
Meanwhile, the most adequate NATO instructors have long been saying that they should not teach the Ukrainians to fight, but learn from them. Because Ukrainians know what a real modern war is, and NATO’s have no idea about it.
I would like to remind you that after the Desert Storm, which happened 27 years ago, there is not a single victory on NATO’s account over any opponent comparable in strength. All their “successes” are “beating babies”, that is, armies that are many times inferior to NATO in all respects, quantitative and qualitative. And for a very long time the entire military preparation of the NATO armies (even the American, for Europeans and say nothing) is focused exclusively on such wars.
Moreover, the “NATO standards”, in particular, imply that it is possible to fight only with at least a threefold superiority in forces on the ground and absolute supremacy in the air. If it does not, then it is impossible to fight. The Georgian army had no such advantage over the Russian army in August 2008, therefore, in full accordance with NATO standards, by which it had already been successfully trained, simply fled (” War 08.08.08 – afterword “, “NVO” from 03.08. 18).
On the account of the Ukrainian army – heavy defeats. But they are much more valuable than NATO’s “victories”. Because she fought with a very strong opponent. It was much stronger on land (at least qualitatively), aviation, however, did not apply, but the Ukrainian successfully landed with ground-based air defense. The Armed Forces were twice defeated (near Ilovayskoye and near Debaltsev), but nevertheless they did not completely collapse (like the Georgian army six years earlier) and acquired a valuable combat experience that NATO does not even dream of. Moreover, since 2015, the losses in the APU technique and the DNP / LNP militia have practically leveled off, the losses in the tanks of the militiamen were even slightly higher than those of the Ukrainian army.
The statements of Ukrainian officials that the Ukrainian army is the strongest in Europe, causes in Russia simply Homeric laughter. Meanwhile, if we exclude from consideration Russia and Turkey, much of whose military potential is in Asia, and if the “army” is understood in the American sense (Army – land forces), then the Ukrainian army is really the strongest in Europe. Yes, it is primarily not the result of its splendor, but the consequence of the degradation of the European armies, but the fact is nonetheless obvious.
Ukraine has one more weapon, without which it is nowhere, – information. Over Ukrainian propaganda in Russia they laugh even louder than over the “strongest army.” And indeed, she gives out a huge amount of “masterpieces” from the series “purposely you will not think up”. But the most important minimum task this propaganda solves very effectively, by imposing the views spread by it to its own population. A very significant part of Ukrainians have already realized the criminality of the current Kyiv regime. But there will be no new Maidans. Not only and not so much because there is no one to organize and pay for them, but because those who are aware of the crime of Poroshenko and Co. are sure that the new Maidan will be “in favor of Putin.”
To kill the APU could be the transition to NATO standards. If it had switched to these standards before the Civil War, the Donbas militiamen would have at least Kiev and Odessa, at most, without control of the “north wind”, as a maximum, controlled the whole of Ukraine. But there will not be any real transition, unfortunately. The Ukrainian army will remain Soviet in the foreseeable future, and that is why it will be our only real enemy in Europe (Turkey again does not count, because we will fight if we do, in any case in Asia). And in general, Ukraine will be our systemic opponent, this is absolutely inevitable.
FROM ANTI-RUSSIAN POSITIONS
As stated in the article ” The Way to Nowhere ” (“NVO” of 11.08.17), the Ukrainian idea by definition is anti-Russian (or Russophobic, as someone “likes”), no other it can not be. And the main contribution to its development was made by Soviet figures who painted the “Ukrainian SSR” in completely artificial borders and pursued a policy of purposeful Ukrainization of the Russian population. And then the authorities of modern Russia in full accordance with the national tradition of idiotic charity (” The main thing is not to repeat mistakes“,” NVO “from 17.03.17) continued to feed independent Ukraine, which did not even imitate friendship with us, but pursued a consistent Russophobic policy for Russian money. And such a policy was carried out by far not only figures like Yushchenko, but also the “pro-Russian” Party of Regions (now deservedly deceased). When Yushchenko was in power, the media controlled by the “Regions”, oriented toward the southern and eastern electorate, talked about how wonderful Russia is and how it is necessary to be friends with it. As soon as Yanukovych became president in 2010, the content of the “Donetsk” (conditionally) media immediately changed to the opposite and became no different from the content of the conditionally “Lviv” publications (the latter, I must say, never changed their content). Now both of them wrote about how terrible Russia is and how to stay away from it. That is, the deceased Party of Regions has never been pro-Russian. It simply exploited the pro-Russian moods of the inhabitants of the East and the South, artificially cut off from Russia by the border, which they drew in the Soviet era. In fact, the “regionalals”, like their opponents from the West and the Center, needed a single independent Ukraine – as an object of looting.
Ironically, in the Kremlin, in expert circles, among the ordinary population of Russia, the idea of ”brotherhood” with Ukraine is still strong and the hope that it is possible to create a united pro-Russian Ukraine (the construction of which Moscow has been waiting for from the Party of Regions for so long). In fact, it was absolutely impossible even before the criminal-oligarchic coup of February 2014, known in Ukraine itself under the mocking title of the “revolution of dignity.” Now we can talk about such an option only “alternative thinking”.
As it was said above, the Ukrainian idea is anti-Russian by definition. Therefore, Russia and Ukraine are either one country or enemies, the third is not given. And what is happening now is not a “program malfunction” caused by “Western intrigues”, but the only possible variant of the development of events. Accordingly, any supporter of a single independent Ukraine can not automatically be considered a pro-Russian politician. He can only exploit the theme of “brotherhood” to drink our “blood” (money, oil, gas), without giving anything in return.
In a sense, Russia was lucky that Yanukovych was overthrown when he managed to get only $ 3 billion from Moscow from the promised $ 15 billion. To some extent, this remarkable country, after a coup, got down from our content. But not completely, which can not but cause great surprise. Of course, the surprise is the policy of Moscow, and not of Kiev.
WHY FEED THE ENEMY
Some of our largest companies (including all major banks) because of Western sanctions still do not work in the Crimea, which is “slightly” strange. But there are even more egregious cases when Russian companies in Russia execute Western sanctions against other Russian companies. Only in the fifth year of this wild absurdity did our legislators finally have the idea of criminalizing the implementation of anti-Russian sanctions in Russia. Actually, it had to be done back in 2014. But in 2018, the “domestic” (without the quotes here in any way) business made such hysteria that the law either does not take place at all, or it will be emasculated to the point of total meaninglessness.
If you imagine that China imposed economic sanctions against the United States (now this is no longer a fantasy), and any American company would risk executing these sanctions, the US authorities would immediately bankrupt this company with multi-billion penalties (which would be the only correct option), and the company’s executives would go to jail for a period of several decades typical of American justice (which is even more correct). Well, then the main democracy in the world, and we have a cruel dictatorship.
But on the anti-Russian sanctions inside Russia miracles do not end. It turns out that at present Russia is not only the largest trading partner of Ukraine, but also the largest investor in it !!! In fact, even in the same year, 2014, Ukraine’s rigid economic blockade should be introduced, and investing in it should also become a criminal offense. Moreover, the most severe economic sanctions against Ukraine would in fact be Russia’s only truly adequate response to Western sanctions. Economically, Russia is several times weaker than the US and the EU, so we can not “mirror” them. But Ukraine, in turn, in all aspects at times weaker than Russia, that’s why we can and must answer it. Either by completely bringing down its economy, or by shifting the burden of its salvation to the West (and it will be very expensive,
The ultimate goal of Russia should be territorial dismantling of Ukraine, and it should be achieved by non-military methods. However, it has long been perfectly clear that Moscow does not prepare any aggression against Ukraine. Simply because we do not economically pull the contents of the plundered country with an extremely embittered population. Accordingly, even if the war provokes Kiev (this can not be excluded), it will be necessary to implement the Georgian version of a decade ago. This means the restoration of the territorial integrity of the NDP and the LNR (along the borders of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions), their diplomatic recognition, the open deployment of Russian troops on their territories (thanks to the US for the precedent they are creating right now, preserving their military presence in Syria without the consent of its government ). And of course, complete defeat of the APU with knocking out the maximum amount of equipment, but without the occupation of at least a small part of the Ukrainian territory. That is, as in Georgia, they defeated and left. Further, Ukraine will have to be disorganized by economic and political methods.
At the same time, it is necessary to remember what was said above – there can not be a pro-Russian politician who stands for a united Ukraine. You can communicate there only with separatists, even if they are anti-Russian. As the leaders of the united Ukraine, we are quite satisfied with the current company, they effectively steal and disrupt it from the inside. This situation will certainly not change if Poroshenko is replaced by Tymoshenko, who we all know very well, as president. Especially it will be great if Ukraine is headed by some pea fool (a singer or an actor of the comic genre, which is unlikely, but it is not excluded), then the collapse of the country will generally go by leaps and bounds. In addition, it is necessary to encourage in every possible way the migration from Ukraine to Russia of the maximum number of the most educated able-bodied population. In this regard, it should be noted, that the migration policy of Russia, which has been continuing since the collapse of the USSR, is well described by the famous question “What is stupidity or treason?”. People are traveling to us in an orderly manner ethnically and mentally alien, but the Slavs and representatives of other indigenous peoples of Russia are deliberately being pushed out purposefully. Is it bureaucratic idiocy or a conscious anti-national policy?
As for the dismantling of Ukraine, it should be clarified that the matter is not in any future “NATO bases near Kharkov”, it is a full propaganda fake, the same as the failed “NATO base in Sevastopol.” The fact is that Ukraine is our enemy, our enemy is extremely dangerous, despite its weakness (in a sense, weakness makes it even more dangerous). Therefore, we need to turn it into a few small states. Some of them will indeed be pro-Russian, and in the future they can also join the Russian Federation. Others, even if they remain anti-Russian, will lose their real potential for causing us any harm. And the ideological foundations of Ukrainian Russophobia in this situation already largely lose their meaning.
In this case, there is no need to worry about the principles of inviolability of borders and territorial integrity. These principles have been trampled many times over the past three decades, and “on an especially large scale” – with the collapse of the USSR (and in general, why should the former artificially drawn administrative borders be inviolable?).
Especially it is necessary to remember that the USSR was killed precisely by Ukraine by its referendum on December 1, 1991, which was conducted in violation of the Union legislation (hello to the current Ukraine, which denies the Crimean referendum). Without the Baltic states and Transcaucasia, the country would have lived peacefully, but without Ukraine, it lost all meaning. Belovezhskaya Pushcha became the only possible consequence of this referendum. In addition, we should not forget how thousands of militants from Ukraine fought on the side of Chechen separatists in the 1990s. Of course, they were not interested in the “independent Ichkeria” (what did they care about it?), They were interested in the collapse of Russia. Later, these people in Ukraine were not only subjected to criminal, but at least political and moral condemnation. And in the twenty-first century, in the Russian Internet launched by one “ardent oppositionist” vile anti-Russian slogan “Enough to feed the Caucasus!” Most supporters were not from Russia itself, but from Ukraine. Long before the Crimea and Donbass, they very much wanted the collapse of Russia. Let the storms that have sown the wind be reaped. Let the Ukrainian propaganda, at last, appear to be right, let’s begin to correspond to what she has lied about us for the last 30 years.
Only all this must be realized as soon as possible. Under the slogan of “strategic partnership” we very much contributed to the cultivation of the most dangerous enemy in the southeast. Under the slogan of “brotherhood of nations” we raised an enemy in the south-west. It’s time to finish with slogans and start thinking with reality.
WHAT TO DO WITH THE DONBASS
The problem is that the current DNR and the LNR are very close to bankruptcy. Their creators, who were now the Donetsk oligarchic group, defeated in Ukraine itself, were, to put it mildly, very specific. And the most specific of them were headed by the nowadays unrecognized republics, which are at the moment half of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, expectedly bringing them to a complete social and economic catastrophe. Therefore, now people from there flee “in all azimuths.” Who could, has long been hooked on Russia and received her citizenship, but now more people are leaving DNR and LNR for Ukraine. She is very much disliked in the Donbas, but there is no place for people to go to, because they are citizens of Ukraine for the whole world.
The behavior of Russia in relation to them has now become frankly sadistic, it is a peculiar quintessence of the aforementioned “amazing” migration policy of the Russian Federation. Those residents of Donbass who have not managed or failed to obtain Russian citizenship, now not only de jure, but also de facto have the same rights in Russia as the citizens of Ukraine. And many of them are threatened with deportation to Ukraine! Including those who fought against it as part of the militia!
To say that this is absolutely immoral, even unnecessary, but this is not at all pragmatic. Yes, it was not Moscow that created the DNR and the LC, but from a certain point it “intercepted” the management of them and is now “in charge of those who have tamed.” But the main thing is not even this, but the fact that the collapse of the NDP and the LNR contradicts not only the idea of a “united pro-Russian Ukraine” (as it was mentioned above, it is in any case a chimera), but, even more so, the idea of dismantling Ukraine.
Other residents of the east and south of Ukraine, not succumbing to the madness of the Kiev agitprop, are not looking at the Crimea, which has become a full-fledged part of the Russian Federation, but to the Donbas. The degradation of the NDP and the LDP will clearly and clearly show them that in other regions there is no need to try. And Ukraine will remain united, only not pro-Russian. Of course, it will itself degrade, from it people themselves will run “along all azimuths”, which has been happening for a long time. But problems for us it will generate a huge amount. That is, in fact, Russia will bring them to herself.