Information operations · Information Warfare · Russia · Ukraine

NATO / EU / Russia Ad Hoc Update (5)

Anonymous expert compilation, analysis, and reporting.

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  1. Munich Security Report released;

  2. C4ISRNet on ‘gray zone’ conflict – e.g. Crimea and Donbass;
  3. Baltics on Islander, France ramps up budget;
  4. Zhirinovsky proposes dropping a low yield nuke on Poroshenko’s residence;
  5. Crimea becoming an increasing and major zero return cost burden on Russian economy;
  6. Russia attempts to use China as a conduit for procuring Ukrainian hardware, emulating Belarus’ past practice of acting as a conduit for Russian hardware used by Ukraine;
  7. Kofman details Russia’s inability to sustain its defence appropriations;
  8. Russian reactions on Elon Musk’s SpaceX win COCW Award for this week.

NATO / EU / Russia Reports

Will NATO Nations Go to War With Russia? New Munich Security Report Warns of Conflict and Collapse of Liberalism

“The world is becoming less liberal, less international and less orderly,” it says. The risk that an armed conflict will break out between Russia and European NATO members has increased over the past year thanks to the erosion of arms-control agreements and tensions over military exercises, according to the annual Munich Security Report. The report, released Thursday before the annual Munich Security Conference, which begins next week, analyzed developments in Central and Eastern Europe and determined that the relationship between Russia and its neighbors could “lead to a further deterioration of the security situation in Europe.” Landmark treaties like the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which was signed in 1987 between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, are at risk of unraveling, the report said. Russia regularly accuses the U.S. of violating the treaty, and growing tensions between Russia and the U.S. could cause a serious international conflict.

Why DoD leaders are increasingly worried about the ‘gray zone’

The wide availability of commercial technologies to militaries and nonstate groups provides ample openings for competitive actions below the threshold of war, escalating the opportunities for a more traditional conflict.

Representative Will Hurd: Russia Is Our Adversary – The Atlantic

Russia is eroding democracy by exploiting the nation’s divisions. To save it, Americans must begin working together.

France to hike defence spending more than a third – Defence Blog


Lithuanian president on Russia’s Iskander in Kaliningrad: A threat to half of Europe | UNIAN

Lithuanian president on Russia’s Iskander in Kaliningrad: A threat to half of Europe. Current news and events for 06 February from UNIAN Information Agency

UAWire – Latvian Ambassador to Russia: if Moscow stations Iskander missile systems permanently in Kaliningrad NATO will have to respond

If the recent permanent deployment of Iskander mobile short-range ballistic missile systems to the Kaliningrad region (the Russian Federation) …

UAWire – Estonian Intelligence warns of information warfare by Russia against NATO troops in the Baltic States

In a report titled “International Security and Estonia 2018”, the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service has warned that Russian information …

The Daily Vertical: That Sovereignty Thing, Again (Transcript)

Russia’s neighbors should not worry where Moscow places its nuclear weapons. Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad, for example, should not be a concern for Lithuania. Why not? Well, in remarks to TASS, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia has the sovereign right to deploy armaments anywhere on its territory. Which is technically true, although Western countries have accused Russia of violating its obligations under the INF Treaty with the Iskander deployments. But there is also another issue at stake here. Peskov stressed Russia’s sovereign right to deploy armaments on its territory. But, at the same time, Moscow has recently raised strenuous objections to Georgia’s recent acquisition of Javelin anti-tank missiles and a French air-defense system, as well as its participation in a U.S.-funded Defense Readiness Program. Moscow has also loudly objected to the rotation of NATO battle groups in the Baltic states and Poland. And Russia, of course, did everything in its power to prevent Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova from signing Association Agreements with the European Union. Now, according to Peskov’s logic, Russia should view all of these things as the sovereign choices of the Georgians, Ukrainians, Moldovans, Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians. But, of course, it doesn’t. Now I know I harp on the Kremlin’s double standard about sovereignty a lot. But I do so for a reason. I do so because it goes to the very heart of the problem between Russia and its neighbors — and it can’t be stressed enough.

Kremlin Says It’s Up To Russia Where It Deploys Its Missiles

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said that Russia has the right to decide where it deploys its military resources on its own territory, following reports that Russia had deployed nuclear-capable…

Russia, U.S. Declare Compliance With Nuclear Treaty By Deadline

The United States and Russia have both declared that they complied with a 2010 arms-control treaty limiting the two countries’ massive nuclear arsenals, as Moscow criticized President Donald Trump’…

“Radioactive ash” syndrome: Russia’s Zhirinovsky suggests nuking Poroshenko’s residence | UNIAN

“Radioactive ash” syndrome: Russia’s Zhirinovsky suggests nuking Poroshenko’s residence. Current news and events for 05 February from UNIAN Information Agency

How much does the Crimea cost Russia?

NEWS / ANALYTICS. Russia’s direct spending on Crimean content is at least 128.7 billion rubles a year (about $ 2.3 billion). Moreover, analysts’ estimates of indirect losses range from $ 10 billion to $ 50 billion a year. In the coming years, the size of direct financial assistance to Moscow peninsula will only grow. Crimea will become one of the most subsidized territories, and it does not have the potential to make money on its own.

stailker | There are no Ukrainian technologies, a catastrophe. The convulsive plan “B” is the re-export of Ukrainian technology from China.

Now Russia wants to buy Chinese unmanned aircraft, this is due to the technical blockade After 2000, the lull in military trade between China and Russia was interrupted by the sale of Su-35 fighters and C-400 air defense systems, but it must be borne in mind that military trade between China and Russia is not at all one-sided, China is also constantly exporting various accessories for military equipment. China has long begun to supply optical glass to Russia, which after secondary processing at Russian enterprises were installed in various military optical devices of the Russian army: the optical industry base borrowed from Germany after the end of the Second World War, after the collapse of the USSR, had long since decayed. Now Russia imports even more components of Chinese production for weapons. The Hong Kong media published an article stating that the sanctions of Western countries and Ukraine against Russia, as well as the arms embargo, forced Russia to turn to China in search of components for combat aircraft and guided missiles, despite the fact that Russia doubts the quality of these substitute products made in China. Probably Russia lacks other channels for the purchase of components for weapons, especially fasteners, pumps and diesel engines. Earlier, these components were imported from Ukraine and European countries, but now due to sanctions Russia has to buy them from China. As for its own production, at one time the Russian media reported that, technically, these components are already outdated, and Russia does not need and the opportunity to invest huge funds in the production of obsolete spare parts. The diesel engines bought in China are already installed in Russian naval light surface ships, the power of Russian surface warships and integrated armored cars is heavily dependent on imports, foreign media believe that if Russia intends to resume the already suspended and even canceled program of equipment of a new type, it will probably import from China gas turbines for warships and diesel engines for cars, but the Ukrainian side may prevent the import of gases turbines for military ships made in China, since the connection of Chinese gas turbine manufacturers for warships with Ukraine is very strong. In addition, it is possible that Russia will import unmanned aircraft manufactured in China. Chinese unmanned aircraft in many countries have already been put into operation, and even production lines are being exported. Although their characteristics are considered worse than UAVs produced in the US, however, compared to Russian drones, their performance is much better. Differences of Russian unmanned aircraft are becoming more and more, but the export of unmanned aircraft includes not only the aircraft and the usual control panel, but also a whole complex technical system. If Russia imports Chinese UAVs, it is assumed that the same situation will arise as with the Su-35 and S-400, the option for sale and the option for domestic use will not only differ, but technical measures will be taken to exclude copying. Russia has just applied similar measures for the Su-35, in order to avoid disclosing the secret production of the engine and avionics.

Poltorak: Russia would always create problems, then play peacemaker | UNIAN

Poltorak: Russia would always create problems, then play peacemaker. View news feed in news about politics for 05 February from UNIAN Information Agency

UAWire – Estonia establishes border with Russia

As TASS reports, Estonia has fully completed the layout of the border with Russia. According to the Police and Border Guard Department of the …

Finland receives first K9 Thunder self-propelled artillery systems – Defence Blog

The Finnish Defence Forces Media Service announced on 8 February that the first K9-Thunder self-propelled artillery systems arrived in Finland. According to a report by Finnish Defence Forces Media Service, the first batch of new K9 Thunder 155 mm self-propelled howitzers from South Korea has arrived in Finland. The Finnish Defence Force ordered 48 ex-Republic of Korea Army K9-Thunder self-propelled artillery systems in early 2017 with an option for an undisclosed number of additional systems. The K9 systems ordered by Finnish Defence Force will be overhauled and fitted with government-supplied subsystems including a battle management system (BMS), global positioning system (GPS), radios and internal communications, and camouflage.

Putin ratified agreement on unrecognized South Ossetian army integrating into Russian army, – 112 – Putin ratified agreement on unrecognized South Ossetian army integrating into Russian army –


Michael Kofman | Starving Wolf No Longer: Can Russia Sustain Its Military? (Op-ed Moscow Times)

Russia is having to balance its demand for more advanced weapons with a slew of other priorities

Next Elon Musk Will Be Russian Because We Are More Talented Than Americans, Says Deputy PM [Igor Shuvalov]

The Kremlin is hoping the next generation of “Elon Musks” will be full of Russians, as he ranks highly in the minds of the youth.

Russians are mocking their space program after the SpaceX launch – VICE News

One posted a decrepit playground spaceship under the caption, “your rocket.” And contrasted that with the Falcon Heavy as, “your mom’s friend’s son’s rocket.”