Information operations · Information Warfare · Russia · Ukraine

Russia Manufactured Provocation Against Ukraine?


This morning I was just browsing through Facebook when my favorite Russian, working at the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, pops up and writes this.

“Attack on Peter

The operation of information terrorism organized by geopolitical opponents of Russia continues. Today, a blow has been struck at Moscow schools. Complex Operation Hybrid War against Russia is stepping up. The main misinformation hit of false phone calls today is caused by Peter – dozens of shopping centers have been evacuated, etc.”

“Атака на Питер

Операция информационного терроризма, организованного геополитическими противниками России продолжается. Сегодня удар нанесен по московским школам. Комплексная Операция Гибридной войны против России активизируется. Главный же дезинформационный удар ложных телефонных звонков сегодня нанесен по Питеру – эвакуированы десятки торговых центров и т.д.”

He clarified and posted this, in Russian, which is about wide-spread bomb scares in Russia.

I had absolutely no clue what he was talking about, so I went “in search of”.  I put “Russia” into NewsNow, http://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/, because it gives the latest news articles based on headlines.  I scrolled down a bit and found this, which mentions schools.

I shared this with a few Russian and Information Warfare experts.  One sent this chilling headline back.

Without firing a shot, Russia has manufactured an incident, a la the Gleiwitz incident.

I reviewed the Interfax.ru article. It has all the hallmarks of a manufactured incident, especially the statement where ‘Russia will not interfere’.

“No, the Kremlin will not influence this in any way, as soon as the results are available, the relevant departments will notify the population about this, but this work is not easy, it requires patience.” As soon as the results are known, “Peskov said.

Zapad 2017 may be a cover for a Russian invasion of Ukraine. The impetus has now been established. If this is the case, expect widespread ‘diversions’ of men and equipment towards Ukraine.

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2 thoughts on “Russia Manufactured Provocation Against Ukraine?

  1. I would suggest maybe we’re seeing a parallel narrative to the “Ukraine sold NK missiles” line, and that we could see further provocations of the sort with evidence leading back to Ukraine (of course somehow actually facilitated by Russia). The positioning of the Zapad troops seems more likely to be poised to ensnare Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia? (I make no endorsement of the site I am referencing here, just the map I’ve seen: https://www.defenceprocurementinternational.com/Content/Features/Images/map-new.jpg )

    In addition, we saw Russian subs off Stockholm in 2014 and simulated nuclear runs on Sweden and Poland in the past too. To me, this looks more like an effort to harrass/take/simulate the taking of the Baltic states. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/19/sweden-search-russian-submarine-stockholm

    Maybe there is an argument Russia could carve out a sphere of influence that includes the Baltics/Baltic Sea as much as they may also be doing in the Black Sea/Crimea?

    (No miltary experience, so of course this is completely from the keister.)

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