Information operations · Information Warfare · Russia

Pentagon Asks White House to Give Lethal Weapons to Ukraine

It’s official, the Pentagon put a paper on President Trump’s desk asking for lethal aid to be given to Ukraine. 

This is not an escalation, these are defensive weapons. Russia, however, will claim they are an escalation of tensions and a provocation and has already promised to respond. 

Russia is already poised to invade Ukraine, with somewhere around 150,000 troops. 100,000 more troops are being sent to Belarus for an exercise. This means Russia will be overstretched with absolutely no room for a contingency. Contingencies include an uprising, massive demonstrations, a coup, an invasion by a third party, or another asymmetric action. Russia is going to leave itself wide open, all in an effort to show strength, when it actually does not have sufficient resources, in all actuality. Russia’s economy precludes Russia having any real strength for a long term invasion, other than passively ‘invading’ and occupying Belarus. A full blown invasion of Ukraine is another possibility before the arrival of the Javelin missiles from the US. The Javelins are a game-changer. 

The Javelin is the most effective ground-launched weapon against a Russian tank, or any tank for that matter because it strikes a tank from above, where a tank is least armored. Russian anti-missile technology is oriented to neutralizing missiles striking it from a basically horizontal flight path, not from the top. Reactive armor is on the sides of a tank, not on top. The explosive power of a Javelin will rock the socks off any Russian tank and without reactive armor, it will usually kill a tank. Will Russia react and install reactive armor on top of their tanks?  Perhaps, but now there are a lot of things on top of a tank and it becomes a motorized lead weight and may strain the engine, etc. Some of the modernized tanks have stronger engines but when you put on more, then more, and then some more… eventually, you’re going to overstress the system. Russians build their systems simple, tough, and efficient – to operate in a combat environment. But there is a practical limit on an engine, on the suspension, on the transmission, etc., and will eventually put a lethal strain on the system.  This means the Russian tank crews are riding into a probable death trap. 

Even the Kontakt-5 and the less efficient Relikt ERA packages are not effective against the Javeling, as the below video shows.

Before you say that Ukraine already has RPGs, they don’t need Javelins, let me remind you, the range of an RPG is best at 200 meters and has a maximum range of 700 meters. A Javelin has an effective range of 2,500 meters and a maximum range of 4,750 meters. 

</end editorial>

WASHINGTON — A recommendation to send high-tech tank-killing weapons to Ukraine to help in its fight against Russia is now at the White House, according to three U.S. officials.

The officials said a proposed aid package includes Javelin anti-tank missiles with an estimated cost of about $50 million.

“It is the right move and I see the fingerprints of Secretary of Defense Mattis all over it,” said Ret. Adm. James Stavridis, former commander of NATO and an NBC News analyst.

Image: Javelin Missile
A soldier fires a Javelin during a training exercise of the Estonian Defense Forces on June 19, 2016 near Tapa, Estonia. DOD

“This is a very logical and sensible move which will increase deterrence — because it will place doubt in the minds of Russian aggressors in terms of their use of offensive weapons systems.”

Russia invaded and annexed the Crimea in 2014 and continues to support pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine. The proposal for providing weapons to Ukraine comes amid tension between the White House and Congress over how to respond to Russian interference in the 2016 election, and an investigation by Special Counsel Robert Mueller into possible collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia. President Trump signed a bill imposing sanctions on Russia for its cyberhacking and its actions in Ukraine but complained that it harmed relations.

While the three officials said no final decision has been made on providing the weapons, they agreed that the Pentagon is in favor of the move.

Image: Ukraine Crisis
A Russian flag flies near Pro-Russia militants sitting atop a 2S1 Gvozdika (122-mm self-propelled howitzer) as a convoy of pro-Russian forces takes a break as they move from the frontline near the eastern Ukrainian city of Starobeshevo on February 25, 2015 in the Donetsk region. Vasily Maximov / AFP/Getty Images file

A Pentagon spokesperson would not confirm the details of the package, saying only, “we haven’t ruled anything out.”

“I can certainly say that we have not provided defensive weapons nor have we ruled out the option to do so,” said State Department spokesperson Heather Nauert during a briefing Thursday.

Still undecided, said the three officials, is whether the U.S. would provide the Javelins through an intermediary and whether U.S. service members would train the Ukrainian military on how to operate them.

The most common Russian tank is the T-90, according to Loren Thompson, chief operating officer of the Lexington Institute, a conservative think tank. The Javelin attacks tanks from above, one of the most vulnerable spots of the tank, he explained, adding that other shoulder-fired weapons like an RPG could not take out a Russian tank.

Thompson warned that providing lethal weapons to Ukraine — a country “on Russia’s doorstep” — is not without peril for the U.S. “What would we think if the Russians were arming Mexico?” he asked. “This could potentially spark a wider war.”

Former Acting CIA Director John McLaughlin, an NBC News analyst, said that the Russians had “earned” the U.S. aid to Ukraine, “but will see it as an escalation even though it poses no immediate danger to their forces given the disposition of the two sides and the nature of the current skirmishing.”

Image: Ukraine Crisis
Ukrainian marines prepare to train in urban warfare techniques on the second day of the ‘Rapid Trident’ bilateral military exercises between the United States and Ukraine that include troops from a variety of NATO and non-NATO countries on September 16, 2014 near Yavorov, Ukraine. file Sean Gallup / Getty Images file

“The U.S. should portray this as an enhancement of Ukrainian defensive capabilities, and part of the deal with Kiev should be that they not use the Javelins to provoke fighting but instead hold onto them for a contingency in which Russia actually uses armor to extend its invasion — which it has not been doing lately.”



2 thoughts on “Pentagon Asks White House to Give Lethal Weapons to Ukraine

Comments are closed.

%d bloggers like this:
%d bloggers like this: