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Ukraine Prevails, Russia Imploding, China Leads

1Too good not to share.

Sveinald Ingvarsson, of course, is a  pseudonym.

By Sveinald Ingvarsson

I thought about building this chart 6 months ago, but it looks better now. Formal multilateral collaborative defence arrangement between Norway, Sweden and Finland, between the Baltic States and Poland, between the Poles, Baltics and Scandinavia. Bilateral defence collaboration arrangements between Poland, the Baltics and Ukraine. Ukraine now forming bilateral relationships with Israel and Turkey, while it appears Turkey might be restoring ties with Israel.

In parallel, Canada, UK and US are forming bilateral relationships with Ukraine, while NATO is building an alliance relationship with Ukraine.

Russia successfully hobbled NATO and the EU unity by compromising the Germans and the French through infiltration of industry, politics and media. Yet this play failed to stop the formation of an anti-Russian bloc within NATO and the EU, from Oslo through to Kiev. Meddling in Syria is now seeing this bloc now expand to encompass Turkey and Israel.

Wildcards are Belarus and Kazakhstan both of whom seem to have remarkably good bilateral relations with Ukraine. As Russia’s economy collapses, they are more likely to realign to Kiev simply as Kiev becomes the economic lifeline via the EU, and the Ukrainians are not bullies like the “Moskals”.

The Chinese have probably studied this well as the timing of their Silk Road project meshes with this remarkably well. The game will be to make lots of money and build relationships along the Silk Road into the EU. The future “Eurasia” will be the Silk Road between the EU and China, not Putin’s grand vision. Russia is economically a midget compared to the EU and China. The Silk Road provides the opportunity Central Asia and the Caucasus lost when the Tsarist Empire colonised them, destroying a trade route that existed since antiquity.

The challenge for the West is managing the development of Central Asia so it does not become a gaggle of dysfunctional Chinese vassals – Ukraine is a potential political gateway for the West into the post-Soviet republics.

Russia having self destructed is now inevitably a vassal of China – China will buy it out when the Russian economy tanks, and the Federation starts to fragment. Vassalhood was predicted 18 months ago – but it seems the Chinese are being especially kind to Russia, letting them dangle and completely self-destruct, before playing their move.

The big question is whether China will see its interests best served by creating a bigger mess in Central Asia, as they seem to be doing in the West Pacific, or whether sanity prevails. There are ample economic opportunities for both China and the West in the resuscitation of the Silk Road, so the question remains whether loony geopolitics or enlightened self interest end up driving China’s play. That is something I cannot predict and would not even think about trying. The insane play in the Senkakus and South China Sea is convincing proof of loony geopolitics getting ahead of sane enlightened self interest.



2 thoughts on “Ukraine Prevails, Russia Imploding, China Leads

  1. This is really good take on current geopolitics in this area. albeit a bit optimistic re: Belarus and Kazakhstan.

  2. Not understanding the significance of the pseudonym, it would be hard for me to comment on this. I mean I have to ask myself: is this like an Onion parody? 🙂
    I just say this because it seems like much of the analysis depends on Russia’s economy both being dependent on oil and, in isolation, low oil prices. The analysis also depends on the consumers of oil having the advantage. I believe the consumers only have a temporary advantage.
    Putin said that was going to create a Military Industrial Complex and to a certain extent he has.
    One advantage of a MIC is that it acts as a hedge in a resource specific economy. The US, as an example, has long used theirs for job bills coming out of their legislature Enough so as to call it a MIGC.
    As for oil consumers having the advantage, I think it is a little early to make that calculation, considering Putin’s hedge.
    With China so heavily vested in the south and east, I have a hard time believing their movement to the west (Silk Road) is anything more than a way to secure an oil supply, from which Putin may see some profit coming by way of his MIC and security connections. While profits may be slow coming from the Ukraine, he seems to be doing better from the Syrian (southwest) and Afghanistan (south east) directions.

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