cyberwar

A possible Russian invasion of Ukraine


The Russian military exercise along the Ukrainian border is a key indicator of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine, here.  Now there are reports of ‘Russian soldiers’ occupying the airport in Crimea (the Soviets did the same thing in Afghanistan), here. I’m getting reports from a number of Russians that appear to be propaganda in support of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.  One report reinforced the Russian invasion of Georgia was due to an attack from South Ossetia.

     I’m interested if anyone has seen or is seeing cyber attacks against Ukraine, probably labeled patriotic in nature?  If so there should have been an increase in the past 24 hours or there will be a future increase.  I’m also interested in locating any web site listing Ukrainian targets, a time schedule and possibly tools?  We saw that in 2008 and it gave Russia plausible deniability (they claimed it came from a rogue element), perhaps we’ll see that here.

Русский военные учения на границе Украины является ключевым показателем возможного российского вторжения в Украине, здесь. Теперь имеются сообщения о “русских солдат” занимает аэропорт в Крыму (Советы сделали то же самое в Афганистане), здесь. Я получаю отчеты от ряда русских, которые появляются, чтобы быть пропаганда в поддержку российского вторжения в Украине. В одном из докладов усиленные Вторжение России в Грузию было связано с атаки по Южной Осетии.

Я заинтересован, если кто видел или видит кибератак на Украине, вероятно, помечены патриотическое в природе? Если это так должно было быть увеличение в течение последних 24 часов или будет будущее повышение. Я также заинтересован в поиске любой веб-сайт со списком украинских цели, график работы и, возможно, инструменты? Мы видели, что в 2008 году, и это дало России правдоподобного отрицания (они утверждали, что это пришло от Rogue Element), возможно, мы увидим, что здесь.

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2 thoughts on “A possible Russian invasion of Ukraine

  1. Based on most of what I’ve been seeing in the media, the majority of ethnic Russians living in Crimea do not want to secede from Ukraine, declare independence, or become absorbed into Russia. By and large, they are currently very concerned about being marginalized by Kiev, and not thrilled by the prospect of becoming second-class citizens in their own country. (This is not an irrational concern: Russians have witnessed this precise thing happen to ethnic Russians living in the Baltic states after 1991, for example.)
    Given the concerns of ethnic Russians in the Crimea, the interim leadership in Kiev should go out of its way to be as inclusive as possible, and not inadvertently – or worse, intentionally – take steps that heighten these legitimate concerns. (Downgrading Russian from being one of Ukraine’s two official languages was one example of an ill-advised step in this regard.)
    Yanukevich and oligarchs like him – regardless of their ethnicity – are thieves who have enriched themselves at the expense of the Ukrainian people. Getting rid of them and installing a fair and honest government, one that represents the interests of ALL Ukrainians – this must be the stated objective of the interim government leaders in Kiev. That message must be clear, consistent – and actually received – in order to be effective.
    It matters a great deal what Russian-speakers in Crimea are using for their news sources. In Russia, TV is by far and away the most important news source. Assuming this also applies to Russian-speaking Crimeans, that could mean trouble for Kiev: Russian TV has been consistently (and at times rabidly) one-sided in its coverage of events in Ukraine. This alone will fan the flames in Crimea and eastern Ukraine.
    One key indicator we will need to watch in the coming days are incidents (actual or contrived) where ethnic Russians end up attacked, beaten or even killed in clashes with ethnic Ukrainians – or even at the hands of Muslim Crimean Tatars. Incidents like this would provide a perfect pretext for the Russian military to become involved on the grounds that it is coming to the fraternal aid of ethnic Russians abroad. Moscow wouldn’t concern itself with seeking a UN Security Council Resolution (which it would not get, in any case); simply an appeal from some regional government officials (again, actual or contrived) would provide an adequate fig leaf for military intervention.

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